how can Mir beat Nog?

[MaliSlamusrex]

personally i can;'t think of a way Mir cant beat nog accept for a lucky punch.

if you were in Mir's conrer what advice would you give him?

run away doesnt count

[Polymath]

He sumbitted a better jiu jitsu player in Travern (sp?) years a ago, which was set up by a punch. But Nog is a lot tougher and pretty decent standing, so its tough to see him reproducing that. Maybe he could try and control the fight from the top position and fight really conservatively; Nogs wrestling sucks so he can take him down, keep him there, I dunno...

[Koa]

I guess we will see. I tend to think Mir could be dangerous to anybody if he pulls guard. But, Nog has shown he is very dangerous anywhere on the ground. I tend to think Nog has the better standup, he can get very buzzed, but he's not an easy guy to knock out.

Nog certainly seems to be at the advantage in every aspect I could think of. Maybe Beebs has seen a weakness, or something that Mir is stronger than Nog is at.. I cant think of anything.

[MaliSlamusrex]

if Mir takes guard Nog will go straight for side control but on the old Mune Gatame and arm bar him. I dont think Mir wants the fight on the ground, Nog is the best BJJ guy in MMA and his judo is amazing.
the only reason Fedor beat Nog is beacuse his stand up is better and he has good takedown defence. if Fedor did not have these skills i have no doubt Nog would be number one.
i just dont see it Mir's confidence must be 0% for this fight.

I guess we will see. I tend to think Mir could be dangerous to anybody if he pulls guard. But, Nog has shown he is very dangerous anywhere on the ground. I tend to think Nog has the better standup, he can get very buzzed, but he's not an easy guy to knock out.

Nog certainly seems to be at the advantage in every aspect I could think of. Maybe Beebs has seen a weakness, or something that Mir is stronger than Nog is at.. I cant think of anything.

[Cameron]

if he can get top control and has a gas tank. i still think nog will control him on the ground and standing

[MaliSlamusrex]

i can see Mir winning by KOing Nog from mount but i just dont see that happening.

if he can get top control and has a gas tank. i still think nog will control him on the ground and standing

[Beebs]

Leglock is by far his best shot.

Nog got kneebarred by Ricco in ADCC, got caught in one at the end of the first round against Barnett in their first fight, and Mir has very good leglocks, maybe better than Nog.

Not a great chance, but its his best one.

Basically he is going to have to finish a fighter who has never been finished since I don't think he has the wrestling and stamina needed to win a 5 round decision.

[TheSweetScience]

He has no shot

[Tyga]

I can see Mir winning. I'm actually picking him to upset Nog. I think Nog is on his way down. Don't get me wrong, I love Nog. But his last two fights were less than stellar. But he did win. And I give him all the credit in the world. Nog is a warrior. But I feel like he's taken too much punishment over the years. If he gets by Mir, I think Brock will take him.

Okay, I'm ready for the bashing...

[ShadowWorks]

Nog is getting on a bit, his skills and heart are not in question, Mir is a big pricky guy with good BBJ, I can see this being a slow fight and a decision if they both pace themselves, but if one of them jizzes early and runs out of stamina the other one has the advantage.

I really don't mind who wins, either guy will beat Lognuts so it's all good.

[boxingcar]

Mir can beat him for several reasons...

1 Nogueira is not what he used to be.
2 Barnett almost caught him via heel hook (or was it a knee bar ? )
3 Mir is specialised with these types of submissions..

So Mir beating Nog is not far fetched.
Will it happen ? ...Not likely...but it wouldn't be very surprising.

Personally i think Nog will win this one by ud.

[Tko4]

Basically he is going to have to finish a fighter who has never been finished since I don't think he has the wrestling and stamina needed to win a 5 round decision.

Yeah, that's how I see it having to go. I don't think Mir is going to KO Nog, either, so I think he needs to catch Nog in a submission. As we all know...that's going to be a lot easier said than done.

[rekcutnevets]

I'll have to agree with Polymath and Cameron on Mir's best chance. Mir's is going to have to keep Nog on his back most of the fight, and avoid being submitted while doing so. Since all of Frank's losses are by tko, he may be able to avoid getting submitted as long as he doesn't run out of gas.

Mir's strategy should be ground and pound.

11 of Mir's 14 professional fights have ended in the first round, and he has only been in one contest that saw round 3. Mir's stamina is a very big question mark. I give him little hope based on this alone.

[rusty nails]

I can see Mir winning. I'm actually picking him to upset Nog. I think Nog is on his way down. Don't get me wrong, I love Nog. But his last two fights were less than stellar. But he did win. And I give him all the credit in the world. Nog is a warrior. But I feel like he's taken too much punishment over the years. If he gets by Mir, I think Brock will take him.

Okay, I'm ready for the bashing...

no bashing here mate i completely agree..
im picking mir for the upset and i think hell do it with a submission opened up by a few strikes..

[Beebs]

I can see Mir winning. I'm actually picking him to upset Nog. I think Nog is on his way down.

Nog definitely seems to be physically deteriorating, I get the feeling he is going to get old overnight before some fight, just don't know if it is this one.

[MaliSlamusrex]

[quote=rekcutnevets;3042418]I'll have to agree with Polymath and Cameron on Mir's best chance. Mir's is going to have to keep Nog on his back most of the fight, and avoid being submitted while doing so.
quote]

i think nog will try and keep the fight with Mir in his guard so he can triangle him or sweep him to get mount.

[MaliSlamusrex]

Nog has so many skills even with his body deteriorating i cant see a way for Mir to win, like a few people said a heel hook....but i dont see Nog giving a heel hook away.

having thought about it over night i think mir will try and get Nog in prone position. probablly from clinch, its going to be a risk because i think Nog judo is better than Mir's wrestling, from there Mir has to put the hooks in surfboard Nog and rear naked joke, but Mir is only going to get one chance at Nog in a prone position if hes lucky.

if Mir fought Nog 100 times i would give it like 95 Nog and 5 Mir

Nog definitely seems to be physically deteriorating, I get the feeling he is going to get old overnight before some fight, just don't know if it is this one.

[ShadowWorks]

YOu can't know the condition of a fighter unless you see both camps, to many variables and factor to come to a realistic conclusion, we will just have to wait and see what happens on the night, after the fact we can say, this, that and the other but in truth nobody can see the future and if they could I would hope they are not some kind of gambler ;)

[MaliSlamusrex]

i am going to bet, Nogueira wins by triangle TKO second round

YOu can't know the condition of a fighter unless you see both camps, to many variables and factor to come to a realistic conclusion, we will just have to wait and see what happens on the night, after the fact we can say, this, that and the other but in truth nobody can see the future and if they could I would hope they are not some kind of gambler ;)

[sugarngold]

Leglock is by far his best shot.

Nog got kneebarred by Ricco in ADCC, got caught in one at the end of the first round against Barnett in their first fight, and Mir has very good leglocks, maybe better than Nog.

Not a great chance, but its his best one.

Basically he is going to have to finish a fighter who has never been finished since I don't think he has the wrestling and stamina needed to win a 5 round decision.

This sounds like Mir's best chance.. Good points Beebs.

[RUSKULL]

Didn't Nog get buzzed bigtime vs. Herring? I think maybe his punch resistance isn't what it used to be and Mir might stun him, mix in a little ground & pound & then go for a leg.

Stranger things have happened................

[RUSKULL]

Either one likely beats Lesnar unless Brock's been working on sub defense bigtime.

[ufoalf]

Didn't Nog get buzzed bigtime vs. Herring? I think maybe his punch resistance isn't what it used to be and Mir might stun him, mix in a little ground & pound & then go for a leg.

Stranger things have happened................

He got kicked on his temple/chin.

[Cameron]

the biggest factor is mirs gass tank as well mir has never had to face anyone in mma with nogs ground game. nog on the other hand has been on the ground with some of the best in mma fedor,werdum, barnett twice and he has shown that he can handle them and not get submitted as well as be able to control the ground win werdum and to some extent barnett in the first and second fight. it will be interesting to see how mir dose for the first time with a high level grappler in a drawn out 5 round fight. nog has the better tank and that will be the biggest factor. mir has to be able to get the takedown and keep nog on his back. nogs top game will spell disaster for mir due to the fact that he has never been in a long fight or faught a good grappler in mma yet. standing nog has the better hands and will beat mir there mir really needs to hope his tank is there and that he can control the pace and top game. my pick is nog by sub in the third after mir gasses

[Mike W]

Frank Mir is going to win. He's never lost when he was the underdog. He was the underdog against Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia, Tank Abbott, Pete Williams and other opponents early in his MMA career, and he beat them all by submission. He will probably not submit or KO Nogueira, but i think he will last to the end and win a decision

[MaliSlamusrex]

what submission from where?

Frank Mir is going to win. He's never lost when he was the underdog. He was the underdog against Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia, Tank Abbott, Pete Williams and other opponents early in his MMA career, and he beat them all by submission. He will probably not submit or KO Nogueira, but i think he will last to the end and win a decision

[jimmie]

Frank Mir is going to win. He's never lost when he was the underdog. He was the underdog against Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia, Tank Abbott, Pete Williams and other opponents early in his MMA career, and he beat them all by submission. He will probably not submit or KO Nogueira, but i think he will last to the end and win a decision

Im sure he was the underdog vs Brandon Vera although im so postive its just hard to imagine considering how fat and bad Mir was in 2006 still not recovered from the knee injury.

[jimmie]

the biggest factor is mirs gass tank as well mir has never had to face anyone in mma with nogs ground game. nog on the other hand has been on the ground with some of the best in mma fedor,werdum, barnett twice and he has shown that he can handle them and not get submitted as well as be able to control the ground win werdum and to some extent barnett in the first and second fight. it will be interesting to see how mir dose for the first time with a high level grappler in a drawn out 5 round fight. nog has the better tank and that will be the biggest factor. mir has to be able to get the takedown and keep nog on his back. nogs top game will spell disaster for mir due to the fact that he has never been in a long fight or faught a good grappler in mma yet. standing nog has the better hands and will beat mir there mir really needs to hope his tank is there and that he can control the pace and top game. my pick is nog by sub in the third after mir gasses

You are correct come to think of it I dont recall Mir ever fighting any high level grapplers aside from Marcio Pay De Pano Cruz and like ive said before I dont put awhole lot into Frank Mirs 2006 fights he was very chubby and had no mobility on his feet I think he was clearly still suffering from the injury he had he probablly couldnt train like hes used to which is probablly where the pot belly came from.

Nog does have significant advantages in the striking and cardio areas but you dont actually know where Mirs cardio is at at this stage of his career. It was suspect at best in 2004 and before but agian in 2006 he was still injured and when he returned in August 07 agianst Hardonk it was a quick fight and so was the Lesnar bout. So it may be improved although I cant imagine it being greater then Nogs.

Like most id say his best chance is for some sort of lower body submission Kneebar,Heelhook ETC. Thats been I wouldnt say a true weakness of Nogs but he did get submitted by Ricco with it and he did get caught with one by Barnett. Mir loves those submissions and id say hes pretty close to the Ricco-Barnett submission fighter level.

[Cameron]

who said that mir was the underdog against tank? im sorry tank has no ground game and mir was a hot grappling prospect tank was suppose to be a big win so he would look good and gain noteriety. he wasnt the underdog.


nog wins in the third round but armbar after he controls the fight and tired mir he passes to mount and wins.

[AJAX]

Mir is a 250lb+ guy who is very athletic withgreat BJJ, I don't think Nog will have aneasy time with him on the ground, the question is will mir want to keep it standing? nog has shown good hands with his fight with HH. I think this will be a close fight...hard to pick, But I suspect mir will come in well prepared.

[ShadowWorks]

I see it going the distance, points win for who ever did the most work, nobody will sub anybody, their are both too good with Nog have just a touch more experience which is cancelled out by Mirs youth, watch for all the boo's!

[Rattler]

It'll be even after about 4 rounds, but I see Nog catching an exhausted Mir in the 5th with an armbar.

[Cameron]

nog has the advantage standing and the experience fighting good grapplers as well as the better cardio. that is why he will win look for the fight to be competitive early on then watch mir fade in the later rounds. nog by submission in the late 3rd early 4th