Taylor Vs Pavlik - pre fight analysis

[pablogad]

I really find this match up intriguing due to elements of the unknown that affect both fighters.

Let's start with Pavlik:

Prior to his demolition of Edison Miranda, I and probably many of us knew very little about this fighter.

What did his win over Miranda highlight about this boxer:

1. Do or die, come forward type fighter - he did what he had to do on the front foot and wasn't afraid to engage Miranda 's punches to puntuate his own.

2. Appeared to be extremely heavy handed, either fist.

3. Can take a decent shot.

Despite all of these positives, recent post fight reports suggest that Miranda was far from his usual gritty self on this night and therefore brings into question the magnitude or lack of, of Pavlik's win - taking nothing away of course!!

On to Taylor:

Definately shown himself to be a decent boxer, but in my humble opinion not an outstanding one. Despite his fights with Hopkins (2) and Wright (1) the following questions/observations plauge me:

1. Poor recent match-ups - why fight two opponents in Spinks and Ouma who are not even legitimate middle weights, especially when one (spinks) is a slick defensive minded southpaw.

2. Where is his desire/heart - with the exception of the first Hopkins fight Taylor has consistently failed to dig deep into his reserves to close out the show, often appearing apprehensive or as though just going through the motions

3. Limited punch output - Taylor's work all seems to hinge on counter punching.

4. On the positive side, Taylor possesses decent if not under rated defensive skills.

To the fight:

With all of the above considered, this is an excellent match-up particularly as there exists so many x-factors. This is the first fight in many years where I cannot make a confident prediction.

All I hope and pray for is that both fighters come fully prepared on fight night and that the best man wins after a competitive fight.

[JETSKI]

I really find this match up intriguing due to elements of the unknown that affect both fighters.

Let's start with Pavlik:

Prior to his demolition of Edison Miranda, I and probably many of us knew very little about this fighter.

What did his win over Miranda highlight about this boxer:

1. Do or die, come forward type fighter - he did what he had to do on the front foot and wasn't afraid to engage Miranda 's punches to puntuate his own.

2. Appeared to be extremely heavy handed, either fist.

3. Can take a decent shot.

Despite all of these positives, recent post fight reports suggest that Miranda was far from his usual gritty self on this night and therefore brings into question the magnitude or lack of, of Pavlik's win - taking nothing away of course!!

On to Taylor:

Definately shown himself to be a decent boxer, but in my humble opinion not an outstanding one. Despite his fights with Hopkins (2) and Wright (1) the following questions/observations plauge me:

1. Poor recent match-ups - why fight two opponents in Spinks and Ouma who are not even legitimate middle weights, especially when one (spinks) is a slick defensive minded southpaw.

2. Where is his desire/heart - with the exception of the first Hopkins fight Taylor has consistently failed to dig deep into his reserves to close out the show, often appearing apprehensive or as though just going through the motions

3. Limited punch output - Taylor's work all seems to hinge on counter punching.

4. On the positive side, Taylor possesses decent if not under rated defensive skills.

To the fight:

With all of the above considered, this is an excellent match-up particularly as there exists so many x-factors. This is the first fight in many years where I cannot make a confident prediction.

All I hope and pray for is that both fighters come fully prepared on fight night and that the best man wins after a competitive fight.

Decent analysis & because there are so many x factors as you put it, one thing will negate all of those things...

Kelly's workrate & 2 fisted punching power will catch up with Taylor late in this fight.

Should be a FOTY candiddate. That, my friend, is a safe prediction.:cool:

[Brickhaus]

One thing I want to point out is that Kelly isn't always a forward-moving fighter. Yes, he'll get hit in order to land his own shots, but he can box in one spot. On tape, he saw a flaw in Miranda that could be exploited by him moving forwards, and he exploited it. Against Taylor, I suspect he'll actually do some backpedaling, and may change his style a bit from round to round. While he's not an expert at any given style, he appears relatively adaptable, and considering that Spinks gave him major problems, I suspect he'll try adopting a style similar to Spinks from time to time, and due to his massive reach, he should be much more effective in doing so. If he just comes in and moves forward, he runs the risk of getting countered onto his ass.

Here's what I suspect will happen:

Early rounds will be somewhat of a feeling out process. Taylor does this in pretty much all of his fights, and Kelly is going to try pressuring at times, fighting more slick at times, and hanging on the outside and jabbing at times, to see what is more effective. If all or none of them are effective at the beginning, then he'll keep switching styles, as part of his gameplan, to keep Taylor from getting settled in. Taylor, on the other hand, will stay back in the pocket and launch counters, occasionally stepping in to try and work Kelly's body. In the middle rounds, Taylor will try to get a bit more aggressive, and if he does so, Pavlik will try to lure in Taylor to get him to trade. If Pavlik can get Taylor to trade and wear himself out, he stands a decent chance of taking all the later rounds. On the other hand, Pavlik needs to be careful not to get knocked on his butt, as sometimes his equilibrium isn't all that great. Also, I can't see Pavlik pressuring the same way as he did against Miranda since Taylor is a better inside fighter than Pavlik. One of three things will happen late, if Pavlik can't catch Taylor clean early and hurt him: (1) Pavlik will get frustrated that he isn't landing anything cleanly, and will drop his workrate in an effort to try to land cleaner shots, in which case Taylor can counterpunch his way to victory. (2) Taylor will get worn out, and Pavlik will try to impose his will on Taylor, and will take most of the late rounds, and possibly even TKO him with the power that Taylor's never felt before in live action. (3) Both guys will start to wear out, and it will turn into more of a chess match, giving Taylor an advantage.

[JETSKI]

One thing I want to point out is that Kelly isn't always a forward-moving fighter. Yes, he'll get hit in order to land his own shots, but he can box in one spot. On tape, he saw a flaw in Miranda that could be exploited by him moving forwards, and he exploited it. Against Taylor, I suspect he'll actually do some backpedaling, and may change his style a bit from round to round. While he's not an expert at any given style, he appears relatively adaptable, and considering that Spinks gave him major problems, I suspect he'll try adopting a style similar to Spinks from time to time, and due to his massive reach, he should be much more effective in doing so. If he just comes in and moves forward, he runs the risk of getting countered onto his ass.

Here's what I suspect will happen:

Early rounds will be somewhat of a feeling out process. Taylor does this in pretty much all of his fights, and Kelly is going to try pressuring at times, fighting more slick at times, and hanging on the outside and jabbing at times, to see what is more effective. If all or none of them are effective at the beginning, then he'll keep switching styles, as part of his gameplan, to keep Taylor from getting settled in. Taylor, on the other hand, will stay back in the pocket and launch counters, occasionally stepping in to try and work Kelly's body. In the middle rounds, Taylor will try to get a bit more aggressive, and if he does so, Pavlik will try to lure in Taylor to get him to trade. If Pavlik can get Taylor to trade and wear himself out, he stands a decent chance of taking all the later rounds. On the other hand, Pavlik needs to be careful not to get knocked on his butt, as sometimes his equilibrium isn't all that great. Also, I can't see Pavlik pressuring the same way as he did against Miranda since Taylor is a better inside fighter than Pavlik. One of three things will happen late, if Pavlik can't catch Taylor clean early and hurt him: (1) Pavlik will get frustrated that he isn't landing anything cleanly, and will drop his workrate in an effort to try to land cleaner shots, in which case Taylor can counterpunch his way to victory. (2) Taylor will get worn out, and Pavlik will try to impose his will on Taylor, and will take most of the late rounds, and possibly even TKO him with the power that Taylor's never felt before in live action. (3) Both guys will start to wear out, and it will turn into more of a chess match, giving Taylor an advantage.

That took you some time & effort to put together.:good

Question for you...Did you know that Kelly is a natural lefty (and ambidextrous) who learned to fight orthodox? Well, what if KP changed to southpaw during the fight to really screw with Taylors head?

And also, I don't think Kelly would drop his workrate. If you watch Kelly closely, you'll notice that his high workrate is similar to Tarvers (hate to use that comparison) where he's constantly throwing punching, but they don't have much on them. It keeps his opponents from getting their rhythm & allows KP to pick his spots as to where & when he decides to load up on a punch. Its like being annoyed by misquitos all night & then being surprised when your hit with a baseball bat.

Whatever happens, this one has all the ingredients of a winner. It won't be no Taylor vs Hopkins, which I thought was a garbage fight from both corners.

[jsimps]

Lennox Lewis posted his fight opinion on the hbo site. I think he is off-base with quite a bit of his analysis.

JETSKI- You are correct, KP is ambidextrous. He is a natural lefty.

[fightfanatic1]

i think kelly will have to get inside and stay inside if he is to have a shot at winning. That means he'll have to take some shots from JT, but Kelly is more than willing to trade. If this happens consistently enough JT will lose by KO (no T). If JT is smart and i tend to think he is, he'll stay outside and outbox and frustrate Kelly "the ghost" Pavlik to a UD.

Both men have flaws in the Defense and will get hit and hit hard. I think it's going to come down to how much JT wants to engage Kelly that will determine how this fight is fought, because Kelly will keep coming and throwing, and JT has the option of standing and trading (which he'll lose) or stepping back and boxing.

And for crying out loud JT needs to either ditch manny or freakin start listening to him!!! One or the other.

[bigeddie27]

here's my analysis:

kelly strengths:
-straight right hand - KILLER
-quick short left hook - very quick with this one

kelly weakness:
-defense - not the greates miranda nailed him numerous times flush
-chin - seems ok, but to me still a weakness. heres why - got knocked down already in his career (not counting the mckart knockdown, i saw that fight on VS and i remeber saying it was BS) and miranda wobbled him with some right hands.

taylor strengths:
-very fast at coming back with a stragit right as soon as he gets tagged, seems to catch people off gaurd with this.
-jab - he has a very good jab
-chin - seems solid has not been knocked down

taylor weakness:
-defense - got tagged by hopkins rights, and winky got him too. I understand these legendary fighters but still, they were not at their prime and still got him.

based on this criteria I have to give it to taylor (by knockout) based on punch resistance. it will be a war of attrition and taylor seems to have the resolve to outlast kelly. Another thing too, I am probably one of the biggest miranda fans out there. I lived in his hometown barrenquilla for awhile so that made me an automatic fan (my parents are both from colombia). That being said, miranda was just as prepared as he ever would of been. Do not take that away from Kelly. I have seen people say on here that miranda was drained, not himself, etc... bullshit. you have to give kelly all the credit in the world for that one. oh and btw, miranda beat arthur abraham.

[brooklyn1550]

Kelly Pavlik TKO7 Jermain Taylor

Kelly Pavlik is technically more solid than Jermain Taylor. He throws the straighter punches, is more compact, holds his hands up higher, and does not telegraph them as much. Jermain Taylor, however, is the much better athlete who has the better reflexes, hand speed, and foot speed. Pavlik has the higher workrate and is always staying busy. Pavlik is the smarter fighter and always seems to stick to a perfect gameplan and I expect him to this time. I see Pavlik putting pressure on Taylor early, cutting off the ring, and going to the body. When Pavlik gets Taylor into a corner or against the ropes, he will tee off as Wright did. Taylor is like a fish out of water when he is against the ropes. Taylor must use his jab and move away from Pavlik's right hand. If he is aggressive, he will get knocked out earlier than my prediction of 7. The fact that Taylor holds his left hand low spells disaster. Pavlik will find him with a huge right hand sooner or later and when he does, Taylor is going to feel it. People can't bank on Taylor boxing like Tommy Hearns or James Toney. He is most effective when he uses his jab to keep his opponents off balance and is the aggressor, utilizing his physical strength and athletic prowess - not when he fights off of the back foot while being pressured. Recently, Pavlik just keeps getting better and better while Taylor, every fight, looks more beatable. All of this, to me, spells Pavlik by knockout. Nothing against Jermain Taylor because I respect him as a champion due to his willingness to fight the very best, but I believe he will move up to super middleweight after this fight with a record of 27-1-1 (17).

Just how I see it, could be wrong, but I'm willing to bet on a Pavlik KO.

[sean]

biggest factor i see in this fight is between the ears.

despite taylor being better technically, i beleive pavlik will want it more and i do not see taylor as the kind of fighter willing to put every last ounce of effort in to get a win.

[BITCH ASS]

Pavlik is going to KO him.

And like Jetski said, don't be suprised to see the man switch Southpaw considering he's a natural lefty.

It shouldn't be all that suprising considering that everyone, (including Taylor), brings it up that Taylor's last 4 fights were against Southpaws.

[emanuel_augustus]

here's my analysis:

kelly strengths:
-straight right hand - KILLER
-quick short left hook - very quick with this one

kelly weakness:
-defense - not the greates miranda nailed him numerous times flush
-chin - seems ok, but to me still a weakness. heres why - got knocked down already in his career (not counting the mckart knockdown, i saw that fight on VS and i remeber saying it was BS) and miranda wobbled him with some right hands.

Don't forget his jab.

So much of this analysis of Pavlik is based it seems solely off the Miranda fight. In past fights Pavlik was more of a mover, working off the jab and using his reach against shorter opponents. He changed up to take Miranda out of his game.

I think Pavlik will move a lot more in this fight and use his long range jab to keep Taylor off balance and to not allow him to counter at will like he would be able to if Pavlik came forward like he did against Miranda.

Good fighters adapt to the guy they are fighting. Pavlik will most likely have a different game plan this time out and won't just come forward and look to trade in the trenches.

[brooklyn1550]

here's my analysis:

kelly strengths:
-straight right hand - KILLER
-quick short left hook - very quick with this one

kelly weakness:
-defense - not the greates miranda nailed him numerous times flush
-chin - seems ok, but to me still a weakness. heres why - got knocked down already in his career (not counting the mckart knockdown, i saw that fight on VS and i remeber saying it was BS) and miranda wobbled him with some right hands.

taylor strengths:
-very fast at coming back with a stragit right as soon as he gets tagged, seems to catch people off gaurd with this.
-jab - he has a very good jab
-chin - seems solid has not been knocked down

taylor weakness:
-defense - got tagged by hopkins rights, and winky got him too. I understand these legendary fighters but still, they were not at their prime and still got him.

based on this criteria I have to give it to taylor (by knockout) based on punch resistance. it will be a war of attrition and taylor seems to have the resolve to outlast kelly. Another thing too, I am probably one of the biggest miranda fans out there. I lived in his hometown barrenquilla for awhile so that made me an automatic fan (my parents are both from colombia). That being said, miranda was just as prepared as he ever would of been. Do not take that away from Kelly. I have seen people say on here that miranda was drained, not himself, etc... bullshit. you have to give kelly all the credit in the world for that one. oh and btw, miranda beat arthur abraham.

Obviously Taylor has more big fight experience as 3 fights with 2 future hall of famers can give you that experience, but Kelly Pavlik's chin is every bit as solid and every bit as tested. Miranda, in the 5th round, landed 3 straight overhand rights on Kelly's chin and he didn't budge. Miranda also landed some decent shots throughout the fight and Kelly wasn't really hurt.

When you factor in punch resistance, you have to factor in punching power too. Pavlik hits harder than Taylor and if he catches Taylor flush with a straight right, I believe it will have more effect than if Taylor landed flush on Pavlik's chin with a straight right.

[JETSKI]

Pavlik is going to KO him.

And like Jetski said, don't be suprised to see the man switch Southpaw considering he's a natural lefty.

It shouldn't be all that suprising considering that everyone, (including Taylor), brings it up that Taylor's last 4 fights were against Southpaws.

About Kelly switching to southpaw, I doubt he actually would do that. I mean, I never recall seeing him do it before & experimenting with a manuever like that in a title fight could prove to be a mistake.

It was just a suggestion thrown out there for discussion sake. Plus, Kelly doesn't need any gimmicks. He just needs to keep doing what he's been doing & he'll be fine.

:!:

[BITCH ASS]

About Kelly switching to southpaw, I doubt he actually would do that. I mean, I never recall seeing him do it before & experimenting with a manuever like that in a title fight could prove to be a mistake.

It was just a suggestion thrown out there for discussion sake. Plus, kelly doesn't need any gimmicks. He just needs to keep doing what he's been doing & he'll be fine.

:!:

I bet he'll do it at least a few times when he has Taylor backing up and almost cornered.

[jsimps]

I don't see him switching, never has. I would be surprised and I feel it would be huge mistake.

[BITCH ASS]

I don't see him switching, never has. I would be surprised and I feel it would be huge mistake.

Maybe that's one of the weaknesses he was talking about?

Anyway, Duran used to do it when he had guys trapped in the corner.

Pavlik might do it momentarily, but I suppose it depends on how the fight is going.

If Pavlik is killing Taylor, why experiment? But if it's the other way around.......

[bigeddie27]

Don't forget his jab.

So much of this analysis of Pavlik is based it seems solely off the Miranda fight. In past fights Pavlik was more of a mover, working off the jab and using his reach against shorter opponents. He changed up to take Miranda out of his game.

I think Pavlik will move a lot more in this fight and use his long range jab to keep Taylor off balance and to not allow him to counter at will like he would be able to if Pavlik came forward like he did against Miranda.

Good fighters adapt to the guy they are fighting. Pavlik will most likely have a different game plan this time out and won't just come forward and look to trade in the trenches.
i actually considered the miranda performance his best, and i really expect the same gameplan for this one. I have read that he is training the same way as the miranda fight by hitting tires with sledge hammers and pulling SUV's with a rope. Pavlik said for the miranda fight that this was the first time he trained like that. If there is a way to get jermain thats what he is gonna hafta do, come forward and break him. Pavlik moving around and boxing to me is taking away his strengths, he might not be able to be as effective boxing now with this type of competition as he was in his prior bouts.

[bigeddie27]

Obviously Taylor has more big fight experience as 3 fights with 2 future hall of famers can give you that experience, but Kelly Pavlik's chin is every bit as solid and every bit as tested. Miranda, in the 5th round, landed 3 straight overhand rights on Kelly's chin and he didn't budge. Miranda also landed some decent shots throughout the fight and Kelly wasn't really hurt.

When you factor in punch resistance, you have to factor in punching power too. Pavlik hits harder than Taylor and if he catches Taylor flush with a straight right, I believe it will have more effect than if Taylor landed flush on Pavlik's chin with a straight right.
there was one point in the fight (round 4 or 5, not too sure) where miranda started making a semi-comeback and nailed kelly right before the round ended. his legs shook and if the round lasted longer it might have been disasterous for kelly. i dunno if the fight is on youtube but check it out if you can.

[jsimps]

[/PHP]i actually considered the miranda performance his best and i really expect the same gameplan for this one. I have read that he is training the same way by hitting tires with sledge hammers and pulling SUV's with a rope. Pavlik said that for miranda that was the first time he trained like that. If there is a way to get jermain thats what he is gonna hafta do, come forward and break him. Pavlik moving around and boxing to me is taking away his strengths, he might not be able to be as effective boxing now with this type of competition as he was in his prior bouts.

Actually, He has gotten away from the strength training this time. He has been working more on his speed and defensive abilities. I'm local.

[bigeddie27]

[/php]

Actually, He has gotten away from the strength training this time. He has been working more on his speed and defensive abilities. I'm local.
interesting, i wonder if he was playing mind games with jermain on that article then. i still got a feeling that kelly will fight with the same style as he did with miranda when it comes down to it.

[bigeddie27]

oh and guys, i forgot to mention one more strength for jermain. My 'Taylor!, Taylor!, Taylor!' chant throughout the fight, it will give him power.

[jsimps]

oh and guys, i forgot to mention one more strength for jermain. My 'Taylor!, Taylor!, Taylor!' chant throughout the fight, it will give him power.

It won't be heard, because the crowd from youngstown will have you duck-taped and put in the trunk of a caddie.

[Axe]

Decent analysis & because there are so many x factors as you put it, one thing will negate all of those things...

Kelly's workrate & 2 fisted punching power will catch up with Taylor late in this fight.

Should be a FOTY candiddate. That, my friend, is a safe prediction.:cool:

Well said! :good

[bigeddie27]

It won't be heard, because the crowd from youngstown will have you duck-taped and put in the trunk of a caddie.

ill make sure to pop the locks on all the trunks for the caddies prior to the fight. theyll never stop the legendary chant.

[41fever]

Lennox Lewis posted his fight opinion on the hbo site. I think he is off-base with quite a bit of his analysis.

JETSKI- You are correct, KP is ambidextrous. He is a natural lefty.So is Cotto and DLH...lefties who fight conv

[DanePugilist]

I wonder if the fact that Pavlik - like kessler - is ambidexteous - is another factor, that spells doom for Taylor?

Edit: Crap, somebody has already written that :D

[Jersey Boxer]

I think pavlik will take it in the late rounds...One thing I notice bout pavlik is this...His training staff really analyzes every fighter...If u ever watch his pre and post fight interviews he always talks about how much he prepares by finding his opponent's weaknesses, I think much of the credit for that goes out to his trainer...You can be a great fighter but without a sold game plan ur lost...His trainer makes sure Pavlik has a game plan for every opponent...and if all else fails...Plan B...straight right...G-nite....


Pavlik in 9