Kelly Pavlik v. Tommy Hearns @ 160

[SteveO]

Who takes it?

[Mike T]

They both can crack but based on overall ability I'd go with Hearns.

[Shake]

I'd go with Pavlik. Awkward styles match up for Hearns, being in with a tall banger.

[Dempsey1238]

I think Pavlik by ko in the 9th round.

[SteveO]

I could definitely see a come-from-behind Pavlik KO.

[Sweet Pea]

Hearns by KO within 5.

[Jase2483]

hearns by a brutal ko before 8 maybe in the first 4


don't think pavlik's on his level

[brooklyn1550]

Taylor, who doesn't punch with the speed, accuracy, or power of Hearns nearly had Pavlik out of there. This may be a matchup of "whoever lands with their power first." And Hearns is more likely to connect with a big right hand early than Pavlik is. Plus, I don't consider Pavlik to be a one-punch KO artist. Even at middleweight, I think a single Hearns punch is harder.

I'd take Hearns in 3

[radianttwilight]

I'd predict 60/40 Pavlik based on styles.

[Sweet Pea]

I'd predict 60/40 Pavlik based on styles.Would you mind explaining?

The way I see it, Hearns has similar height, more reach, similar power, and better boxing skills, jab, etc, with a better single punch(straight right) than any in Pavlik's arsenal. Pavlik can be hurt, and hurt bad, by a decent puncher, as we've seen. Someone as skilled and accurate as Hearns, with the power he has, I feel would be the one landing first, as Pavlik does not exactly have an impenetrable defense. I see Hearns ending this one fairly early.

[radianttwilight]

Would you mind explaining?

The way I see it, Hearns has similar height, more reach, similar power, and better boxing skills, jab, etc, with a better single punch(straight right) than any in Pavlik's arsenal. Pavlik can be hurt, and hurt bad, by a decent puncher, as we've seen. Someone as skilled and accurate as Hearns, with the power he has, I feel would be the one landing first, as Pavlik does not exactly have an impenetrable defense. I see Hearns ending this one fairly early.

Here's how I see it -

Pavlik is gonna be coming forward in this fight (you can bet the bank on that), and even though his jab is "worse" than Hearns' I think they'll be jabbing on roughly even terms. Pavlik is taller, and his jab is better suited to busting people up as he comes in IMO.

Pavlik's chin is underrated. Taylor, for all his flaws, is a big, athletic middleweight who can certainly bang when he wants to. Pavlik made the big mistake of egging him on (the hands lowered "hit me" bullshit he tried) and he paid the price. What we did see is that he's got a huge heart and good recovery skills. Hearns, on the other hand, has a bona fide glass jaw.

Predicting who lands first is a tough one, but I don't think it really matters in the overall prediction. Hearns won't get up in Kelly puts him down, but I don't doubt Pavlik's ability to (depending on how hard he gets caught). Maybe 51/49 is a better call, it's a close fight that could most definately go either way, but at gunpoint I would have put my money on Pavlik.

IMO Pavlik is more proven against big, tough guys (at middleweight), too. Hearns is a fantastic welterweight (one of my top 3 H2H at that weight) but his definite fragility makes me hesitant to pick him over a durable come-forward guy like Pavlik that throws straight bombs and has proven his ability to both get off the canvas and finish a wounded opponent.

[Sweet Pea]

Here's how I see it -

Pavlik is gonna be coming forward in this fight (you can bet the bank on that), and even though his jab is "worse" than Hearns' I think they'll be jabbing on roughly even terms. Pavlik is taller, and his jab is better suited to busting people up as he comes in IMO.

Pavlik's chin is underrated. Taylor, for all his flaws, is a big, athletic middleweight who can certainly bang when he wants to. Pavlik made the big mistake of egging him on (the hands lowered "hit me" bullshit he tried) and he paid the price. What we did see is that he's got a huge heart and good recovery skills. Hearns, on the other hand, has a bona fide glass jaw.

Predicting who lands first is a tough one, but I don't think it really matters in the overall prediction. Hearns won't get up in Kelly puts him down, but I don't doubt Pavlik's ability to (depending on how hard he gets caught). Maybe 51/49 is a better call, it's a close fight that could most definately go either way, but at gunpoint I would have put my money on Pavlik.

IMO Pavlik is more proven against big, tough guys (at middleweight), too. Hearns is a fantastic welterweight (one of my top 3 H2H at that weight) but his definite fragility makes me hesitant to pick him over a durable come-forward guy like Pavlik that throws straight bombs and has proven his ability to both get off the canvas and finish a wounded opponent.Fair enough.:good

[radianttwilight]

Fair enough.:good

:D

The key reasons being straight punches and durability.

Hearns will definately want to punch Pavlik out early, he needs to beat him in landing that first big right. If Hearns tries to box, he's gonna have major problems with a guy as big as Pavlik coming right after him with those long punches right up the middle.

[Sweet Pea]

:D

The key reasons being straight punches and durability.

Hearns will definately want to punch Pavlik out early, he needs to beat him in landing that first big right. If Hearns tries to box, he's gonna have major problems with a guy as big as Pavlik coming right after him with those long punches right up the middle.Hearns does have the bigger reach and the snappier punches though, and the overall better boxing technique, which is why I see him landing not only first, but more often and accurately.

[radianttwilight]

Hearns does have the bigger reach and the snappier punches though, and the overall better boxing technique, which is why I see him landing not only first, but more often and accurately.

Ah, but defence is the difference (as I see it). Hearns' always seemed to be better when he was stalking opponents (as he often did at welterweight) but he will be in trouble when made to go backward. Pavlik's defence, although I think it's better, isn't that much better, but it'd be more suited to the role he'd take in the fight.

As far as Hearns' reach advantage, I think it'll basically be negated by his movement around the ring. Pavlik is gonna be able to extend to past his full reach because he's coming forward.

This is a fight where I think Hearns might be better off thinking his chin is iron and going for broke early. The longer he's in that ring, the closer he comes to getting tagged by that eventual shot, and I really doubt his ability to get off the canvas in this situation (and, if he does, his ability to survive). "Protecting his chin" could quite possibly backfire, both because Hearns' defence was never that great, even when he focused on it, and because straight punches tend to come right through that defence.

[Sweet Pea]

This is a fight where I think Hearns might be better off thinking his chin is iron and going for broke early.That's why I think it does end early. What's to stop him from fighting that way?

[radianttwilight]

That's why I think it does end early. What's to stop him from fighting that way?

Nothing, he'd be stupid not to fight that way. Throwing caution to the wind doesn't mean he knocks out Pavlik before he gets caught himself, though.

I just can't get the images of Hearns getting coldcocked and Pavlik getting off the canvas to stop Hearns out of my head :D

This concludes our mini-discussion (for the night, at least - I'm headed to bed), the underlying factor in my analysis is:

DURABILITY! :)

[Mega Lamps]

Pavlik has a punchers chance and they both have similar attributes but I'd have to give skill to Tommy and predict hed end up stopping Kelly at some point in the fight.

[Fedor Em]

I see Hearns stopping Pav in 5. Kelly has a decent chin, and good recovery skills, but those were recovery skills against Taylor. I don't see Pavilk surviving Hearns when he is in trouble. Tommy had the reach of Taylor, superior power, speed, and was a far better combination puncher, especially when his opponent was hurt.

[MrMagic]

Here's two bangers, that can definitely KO one another.
The key thing would be Hearns conditioning, he'll outjab Pavlik, something noone has done thus far, and how would Pavlik react to that? Hearns jab was freakish, Kellys isn't bad either, he actually outjabbed Taylor.. but he wouldn't outjab Tommy.

Based on styles, I think I have to give Pavlik the edge, he comes forward with a relentless non-stop attack, Tommy on the other hand can move well for the first half of the fight, and w/ that .. very well.

I would think that Kelly catches up with Tommy somewhere between the 8th and the 12th round, and finish him off.


Either an early K.O for Tommy or Pavlik late.
If it goes a few rounds, Pavlik will benefit.

[JohnThomas1]

Taylor, who doesn't punch with the speed, accuracy, or power of Hearns nearly had Pavlik out of there. This may be a matchup of "whoever lands with their power first." And Hearns is more likely to connect with a big right hand early than Pavlik is. Plus, I don't consider Pavlik to be a one-punch KO artist. Even at middleweight, I think a single Hearns punch is harder.

I'd take Hearns in 3

Me too, good summation.

[PowerPuncher]

Taylor nearly had Pavlik out, Hearns is a much better version and does take Pavlik out

[Holmes' Jab]

Hearns TKO4. Not much to add to Sweet Pea's summary.

[JediPimp007]

Hears imo, but it's a pickem fight. Hearns would surely use his much better boxing skills, speed of foot and hand to dictate and has more 1 punch power (Pavlik outworks and stops people). Hearns also has the better reach, but his chin is below average... which against Pavlik is a problem... but this works both ways, I dont doubt for a moment that if Hearns starts landing rights all night, then he'll put Kelly to sleep... then again it could go the way of the first SRL fight with Hearns winning and eventually getting caught up and stopped late.

[abraq]

From the accomplishment of both fighters till date I can't believe the number of people who has picked Pavlik.

IMO Hearns wins this one - by kayo or decision.

Yes, ultimately Pavlik may accomplish enough in his career to merit giving him the nod in a bout with Hearns at middleweight. Only time will tell.

[JediPimp007]

From the accomplishment of both fighters till date I can't believe the number of people who has picked Pavlik.

IMO Hearns wins this one - by kayo or decision.

Yes, ultimately Pavlik may accomplish enough in his career to merit giving him the nod in a bout with Hearns at middleweight. Only time will tell.

exactly, Pavlik has one very good win over JT who's looked less than impressive recently and even that one was a close fight, nothing like the blowout it's being made out to be. Hearns had phenominal power that carried up through countless weight classes, but more so was fast, technical and very giften athlete.

[PhillyPhan69]

I like Hearns much more, rank him MUCH higher...I don't see any way Pavlik outboxes Tommy (Few could), but Tommy was susceptible to the big punch..Pavlik stops him in 9 while trailing on all 3 cards...then Tommy comes back a year and a half later to score a UD 8-4.

[Longhhorn71]

I like Hearns much more, rank him MUCH higher...I don't see any way Pavlik outboxes Tommy (Few could), but Tommy was susceptible to the big punch..Pavlik stops him in 9 while trailing on all 3 cards...then Tommy comes back a year and a half later to score a UD 8-4.

Pavklik has won 2 big fights (Taylor & Pantera).

Hearns has won numerous big fights from 147 to 175.

The size & punching power are similar, but the experience is
very one-sided for Hearns.

You can pull a Terry and go into Atlas-babblespeak and talk about
"dimensions" and "options", but Hearns has so many more ways to win.

Hearns just takes the easy road and outpoints him.

[Jack]

I think Pavlik's chin is getting sold short here. Alright, so he was knocked down by Taylor, but it was simply a great shot. it caught him right on the temple, but he got up alright. He took a lot of clean shots to the jaw after the one which put him on the canvas, which says something. Any boxer is capable of getting knocked down, even if it is against a "decent" puncher.

Look at the fights with Miranda. Pavlik took a lot of realy good punches in that fight against a proven one-punch knockout artist. I'd say Miranda has better power than Hearns, so if his best shots didn't KO Pavlik, I can't see Hearns scoring a blowout.

If Hearns is to win this fight, he'd be better off boxing, throwing hard counter shots. If he trades with a guy who has a harder punch and better chin, the result would be the same as 'The War'.

Hearns is the better boxer. He should use that to his advantage.

If he doesn't, Pavlik KO 4.

[frankwornank]

Hearns was always very dangerous. But I pick Pavlik. Pavlik is a stronger guy. Hearns, while great, tended to become fatigued when really pressed. His legs started to become discombobulated (confused) under him. You can be sure, Pavlik would put all kinds of pressure on Hearns.

Obviously, we will never know. It would have been exciting for sure!

[brownpimp88]

leonard was taking punishment from hearns all night long and as soon as ray taps hearns, his legs wobble and he gets hurt. I like tommy but his jaw is literally glass.

[pryorgatti]

Hearns KO in 4.

[codeman99998]

Too early to tell.

[Sardu]

Hearns was a legend of course. But if he did show one flaw it was his less than stellar chin. Juan Domingo Roldan had him hurt badly. So did James 'the heat' Kinchen. Kinchen even complained about Hearn's excessive holding in that fight. Pavlik is still a work in progress. He probably will never face fighters as great as Hearns faced because they are simply not around now. At least in the middleweight and super-middleweight divisions. Even though he is in the infancy stages of establishing his legacy - Pavlik is a special fighter already. Based on what I've seen I think he has the punch, skills, chin to take out Hearns.

Pavlik KO 9 Hearns in an incredible slugfest with skill.

[Quick Cash]

It's much too early to surmise anything conclusive about Kelly Pavlik. I will say with much diffidence that Kelly looks to be the type that strains against a good delivery system. Miranda landed on him but he was able to manage; Zuniga and Zertuche both landed but he was fine. How was it then that Jermain Taylor was able to rock him in less than two rounds of boxing?

That is a clear advantage for Hearns especially when, relatively speaking, Taylor isn't even a remarkable specimen when discussing good delivery systems.

What he's amassed for ring credentials fail to impress so far. Hearns wins.

[Stonehands89]

leonard was taking punishment from hearns all night long and as soon as ray taps hearns, his legs wobble and he gets hurt. I like tommy but his jaw is literally glass.
Hearns was stopped by exhaustion against a good puncher in Leonard, was stopped by a heavy punching relentless Hagler and was stopped by another heavy punching relentless Barkley.

There is no shame there and his jaw was not glass.

I agree that if Pavlik can survive late, he has a chance because he is yet another heavy puncher. But that is a mighty big "IF" because the Hearns that came in against Hagler would be strongly favored to hurt the step-to-slow Pavlik. That demon speed would overwhelm the mechanical style of Kelly -especially at this juncture. Time will tell what happens to a fully developed Pavlik.

But I'll tell you, Pavlik has a good chin at least, and Edison proved it, and may have even dented it. But he is there to be hit... his distance is too close and he doesn't have the quickness or flexibility to allow confidence in his ability to evade the quick concussions that Hearns would deliver. I love the kid, but I'm holding my breath every time he gets into an exchange because that little bean head is there to be cracked.

The other bean head who is better with distance negotiation and head movement and overall skill combined with demon speed, Hearns, will most likely win by early KO.