Pavlik vs Calzaghe analysis

[PugilisticPower]

Lots of interest is being generated by this fight and while most of us know that it’s just to keep Roy Jones Jr honest in his negotiations, lets see how some of you think this fight will play out.

Pavlik

Strengths: Durability, Power, Heart, Stamina, Come Forward style, Relaxed even under pressure
Weaknesses: Predictable fighting style, hasn’t shown adaptability so far, Taylor showed he can be countered and beaten to the punch, has gone down in several fights, including being hurt badly by Taylor

Usual Gameplan: Keep the other fighter on the backfoot, war of attrition, knows he’s likely to be hit but backs himself to hit the other fighter more and really comes down to balls vs balls

Calzaghe

Strengths:: Durability, Super Human Stamina, Heart, Super Boxing IQ, Adaptability, Footwork, Handspeed
Weaknesses: Showboater, Doesn’t sit down on punches due to hand problems, Can be easy to hit early in the fight

Usual Gameplan: Varies from fight to fight, used the jab to great effect against Kessler, works in behind the jab to get close to flurry, often gets in brawls with fighters.

Analysis

Pavlik will attempt to back Calzaghe up, but the comeforward style of Pavlik should give Calzaghe lots of opportunities to counter, land shots and get out of the way, ala Lacy and similar to the mid to late rounds vs Kessler.

Joe will get hit early in the fight by a right hand or two but his beard is good enough that it won’t damage him, later in the fight he should take the right hand away from Pavlik like he did against Hopkins.

Pavlik will keep coming forward, throwing punches and trying to land the right hand, I suspect he will seem to have success for three or four rounds until Joe works out his rhythm and starts to land more of his own.

Expect Joe to outjab Pavlik and land his left hook over the straight rights of Pavlik, similar to what Taylor was doing early in the fight. As the fight wears on, I think Pavlik will tire as most do against Calzaghe and we’ll likely see Calzaghe start flurring more, landing to the body and trying to land his uppercut which is now his most effective powershot.

Pavlik’s heart cannot be questioned but his chin can, I think he doesn’t have the speed of Kessler which should make it easier for Calzaghe to sit down on his punches and potentially put Pavlik away late.

Prediction: Calzaghe 118-112UD or R10TKO.

Reason: Calzaghe is still too fast and adaptable to be beaten by a come forward fighter like Pavlik. Pavlik is an accumulation puncher and will not put Joe down with one shot, Joe usually manages to nullify his opponents best weapon, i.e the Left hook with Lacy, the Jab with Kessler, the right hand from Hopkins later in the fight and I think he’ll do this against Pavlik. Will be a test for Pavlik to see how his heart is when he’s missing most his shots in the mid to late rounds and this could be a corner stoppage.

Fights to watch to get a feel for how this fight might go..

Calzaghe vs Veit, Woodhall, Reid, Kessler, Eubank

Pavlik vs Taylor II (the countering and fast right hands earlier by Taylor)

[headhunter]

Lots of interest is being generated by this fight and while most of us know that it’s just to keep Roy Jones Jr honest in his negotiations, lets see how some of you think this fight will play out.

Pavlik

Strengths: Durability, Power, Heart, Stamina, Come Forward style, Relaxed even under pressure
Weaknesses: Predictable fighting style, hasn’t shown adaptability so far, Taylor showed he can be countered and beaten to the punch, has gone down in several fights, including being hurt badly by Taylor

Usual Gameplan: Keep the other fighter on the backfoot, war of attrition, knows he’s likely to be hit but backs himself to hit the other fighter more and really comes down to balls vs balls

Calzaghe

Strengths:: Durability, Super Human Stamina, Heart, Super Boxing IQ, Adaptability, Footwork, Handspeed
Weaknesses: Showboater, Doesn’t sit down on punches due to hand problems, Can be easy to hit early in the fight

Usual Gameplan: Varies from fight to fight, used the jab to great effect against Kessler, works in behind the jab to get close to flurry, often gets in brawls with fighters.

Analysis

Pavlik will attempt to back Calzaghe up, but the comeforward style of Pavlik should give Calzaghe lots of opportunities to counter, land shots and get out of the way, ala Lacy and similar to the mid to late rounds vs Kessler.

Joe will get hit early in the fight by a right hand or two but his beard is good enough that it won’t damage him, later in the fight he should take the right hand away from Pavlik like he did against Hopkins.

Pavlik will keep coming forward, throwing punches and trying to land the right hand, I suspect he will seem to have success for three or four rounds until Joe works out his rhythm and starts to land more of his own.

Expect Joe to outjab Pavlik and land his left hook over the straight rights of Pavlik, similar to what Taylor was doing early in the fight. As the fight wears on, I think Pavlik will tire as most do against Calzaghe and we’ll likely see Calzaghe start flurring more, landing to the body and trying to land his uppercut which is now his most effective powershot.

Pavlik’s heart cannot be questioned but his chin can, I think he doesn’t have the speed of Kessler which should make it easier for Calzaghe to sit down on his punches and potentially put Pavlik away late.

Prediction: Calzaghe 118-112UD or R10TKO.

Reason: Calzaghe is still too fast and adaptable to be beaten by a come forward fighter like Pavlik. Pavlik is an accumulation puncher and will not put Joe down with one shot, Joe usually manages to nullify his opponents best weapon, i.e the Left hook with Lacy, the Jab with Kessler, the right hand from Hopkins later in the fight and I think he’ll do this against Pavlik. Will be a test for Pavlik to see how his heart is when he’s missing most his shots in the mid to late rounds and this could be a corner stoppage.

Fights to watch to get a feel for how this fight might go..

Calzaghe vs Veit, Woodhall, Reid, Kessler, Eubank

Pavlik vs Taylor II (the countering and fast right hands earlier by Taylor)


Calzaghe vs Veit II is the best I've seen Calzaghe fight apart from the Lacy fight.

[PugilisticPower]

I stopped reading after that. :verysad

Well, instead of pointing out that you didn't read the thread because of a disagreement in analysis, point to a fight that Pavlik showed adaptability beyond his usual come forward, throw the jab, throw the right hand, throw the hook style that has been successful for him.

He's a routine, predictable fighter. Doesn't make it a bad thing, Ali was a routine predictable fighter during the prime of his career too.

[prideofvbeach]

I stopped reading after that. :verysad

Well, I did read beyond that, although Pavlik would not have won the second Taylor fight if he hadn't adapted for a technical battle. That statement is short-sighted, although not as short-sighted as claiming Calzaghe could KO Pavlik. Joe throws in volume beyond the power isn't there. He ability to damage the other guy comes from the fact that he lands three times for every one the other guy does. That's the only reason he won against Kessler, Hopkins, or Lacy (and the only reason Lacy or Kessler looked blasted by the end). If Joe had the same output as those he beat, his record would look more like Arturo Gatti's. Personally, I see the end result to be a mirror of the Kessler fight, 116-112 for Calzaghe.

[PugilisticPower]

What about the Zertuche fight? At first all he did in that fight was his usual stand infront of you and brawl style... then after he rode out the storm by Zertuche, Pavlik decided to work the jab from the outside and blast away with right hands. That was actually the very 1st time I ever saw the man use his long range and reach and box from the outside. Now if that's not adaptivity I don't know what is. He basically changed his entire style from one half of the fight to the next, with a style he had never even implemented before in the past.

So you consider adaptability to be going from jabbing and throwing the right hand.... going to...jabbing and throwing the right hand ?

[PugilisticPower]

Listen, fighting from the outside and throwing the jab, compared to coming forward and throwing the jab, isn't really adaptability in my view.

Adaptability for me is a guy who can go from throwing combinations on the inside to the body and head, roughing up his opponent - to then going to the outside, counter punching, etc.

Even when Pavlik moves back, he gets off first.

He's not adaptable in the sense that Joe Calzaghe (or other top fighters) are adaptable.

As for coming back and stopping them later - well yes, adjustments were made, he knew which punches to look for, he didn't really adapt his core style - he didn't suddenly become a head moving, shuffling footwork fighter who threw combinations to the body and bounced out again now did he?

[PH|LLA]

del

[PugilisticPower]

Well, I did read beyond that, although Pavlik would not have won the second Taylor fight if he hadn't adapted for a technical battle. That statement is short-sighted, although not as short-sighted as claiming Calzaghe could KO Pavlik. Joe throws in volume beyond the power isn't there. He ability to damage the other guy comes from the fact that he lands three times for every one the other guy does. That's the only reason he won against Kessler, Hopkins, or Lacy (and the only reason Lacy or Kessler looked blasted by the end). If Joe had the same output as those he beat, his record would look more like Arturo Gatti's. Personally, I see the end result to be a mirror of the Kessler fight, 116-112 for Calzaghe.

I don't see Joe putting Pavlik's lights out but it's not beyond me seeing Joe accumulate damage on Pavlik over a number of rounds to the point that the corner pulls the plug.

[PrideOfWales]

I like Pavlik, he's good for the game. He should avoid Calzaghe at all costs. I'm not being funny but Joe would derail Pavlik something rotten over the course of 12 rounds. Never before have I put money on a Superfight but this, to me is easy-pickings. Kelly just doesn't have the brains to deal with Joe. He has the height, reach, power but doesn't have the speed of thought needed to deal with a Joe Calzaghe. Forget hand speed and footwork, fighting Calzaghe needs a level of awareness that Hopkins showed, the power of a good Light Heavyweight, a great defence, fitness and stamina in abundance and good solid boxing skills. Pavlik has defensive flaws that would be cruelly exposed by an on-song Calzaghe and lacks the where-with-all to box on the fly. For these two reasons alone, I can only pick one winner.

Joe hasn't stopped anyone for years... I don't see how he could stop Pavlik nowadays.

[Ted Stickles]

If this fight does come off Joe will be looking to go out huge especially after that sloppy fight with Hopkins...I think Kellys style is perfect for Joe and while kelly will have some early moments i could see Joe winning by late stoppage or UD

[pipe wrenched]

If this fight does come off Joe will be looking to go out huge especially after that sloppy fight with Hopkins...I think Kellys style is perfect for Joe and while kelly will have some early moments i could see Joe winning by late stoppage or UD

So says Ted Stickles the HUGE Pavlik fan.:rofl :rofl

[pipe wrenched]

If this fight does come off Joe will be looking to go out huge especially after that sloppy fight with Hopkins...I think Kellys style is perfect for Joe and while kelly will have some early moments i could see Joe winning by late stoppage or UD

By the way, I see it as the exact opposite, Joe will have some nice moments early, but by the 6-7th round, Katie bar the door boys.

[PugilisticPower]

Seems to me like you've just agreed to my point right there. Adjustments don't have to be an over exaggerated change of your style, all they have to be is a subtle tweak to you offense or defense to compensate for something you're doing wrong in the ring. So of course Kelly is an adaptable fighter. Maybe not in the way that YOU see fit, but in a way that got him to becoming the Middleweight champion of the world! Now that's proof for ya.

And by the way, you still don't seem to be getting what happened in the Zertuche fight. The guy turned form a brawler early in the fight with no jab, to an outside boxer with a long jab and long punches rather than short ones to deal with Zertuche's short-armed power hitting.

So even there I've given you a great example of your dear over-exaggerated change in style that you are so fond of. I feel I've argued my case well and even gotten you to in part concede to my point while I've read nothing from you that would convince me otherwise as to how 'bad' an adjuster Pavlik is.

Adaptability to me is an ability to change the style of your fight completely and completely put your opponent off their game.

Pavlik does not do this.

Any argument otherwise is pointless.

How did he beat those guys? Small adjustments, a tonne of heart and eventually breaking them down

Not an instant fix early in the fight and then absolute domination.

[pipe wrenched]

Adaptability to me is an ability to change the style of your fight completely and completely put your opponent off their game.

Pavlik does not do this.

Any argument otherwise is pointless.

How did he beat those guys? Small adjustments, a tonne of heart and eventually breaking them down

Not an instant fix early in the fight and then absolute domination.

Sir, the times Mr. Pavlik WAS dropped in his career, it was ALWAYS within the first 1 or 2 rounds. Now are you seriously saying he made no adjustments from what he was doing at first to come back and KO each one of them?

[Amsterdam]

Calzaghe in 5 rounds, Pavlik is not ready, nor will ever be ready for Joe Calzaghe. This is a blue collar fighter vs. an executive fighter, just won't work.

[PugilisticPower]

Sir, the times Mr. Pavlik WAS dropped in his career, it was ALWAYS within the first 1 or 2 rounds. Now are you seriously saying he made no adjustments from what he was doing at first to come back and KO each one of them?

Not to the level that I consider him to be an adaptability based fighter.

You get hit with a hard right hand, you tend to remember that hard right hand is coming and you're better prepared, despite not really changing your style to take it.

Minute adjustments are one thing and Pavlik has shown the ability to do that.

Adaptability is another.

Joe Calzaghe is adaptable.
Floyd Mayweather Jr is adaptable.
Bernard Hopkins is adaptable.

Pavlik is not.

[pipe wrenched]

Not to the level that I consider him to be an adaptability based fighter.

You get hit with a hard right hand, you tend to remember that hard right hand is coming and you're better prepared, despite not really changing your style to take it.

Minute adjustments are one thing and Pavlik has shown the ability to do that.

Adaptability is another.

Joe Calzaghe is adaptable.
Floyd Mayweather Jr is adaptable.
Bernard Hopkins is adaptable.

Pavlik is not.

Kind sir, Pavlik has won all 33 of his fights using minute adjustments.


Also it appears in your post that only really slick boxer types make your definition of adjustments any ways. So I'll just drop this one.

[PugilisticPower]

Kind sir, Pavlik has won all 33 of his fights using minute adjustments.


Also it appears in your post that only really slick boxer types make your definition of adjustments any ways. So I'll just drop this one.

Don't get me wrong, I respect the guy immensely for his achievements, I'm not Amsterdam who is so obviously a prick with no respect for anyone that everything he says towards fighters is vile or absolute nut hugging...

Pavlik is a great fighter, with a fucking huge heart, durability and stamina and will keep coming all night long. He has rattled off win after win after win, against the odds, including Miranda and Taylor and has done so while remaining completely humble about it.

How can you not like the guy?

I just think in the case of him going up against his first real slickster style, a style that seems to adapt to the fight, Pavlik hasn't shown any GREAT deal of adaptability, he hasn't needed too, he's steam rolled most of the guys he's fought.

[pipe wrenched]

Don't get me wrong, I respect the guy immensely for his achievements, I'm not Amsterdam who is so obviously a prick with no respect for anyone that everything he says towards fighters is vile or absolute nut hugging...

Pavlik is a great fighter, with a fucking huge heart, durability and stamina and will keep coming all night long. He has rattled off win after win after win, against the odds, including Miranda and Taylor and has done so while remaining completely humble about it.

How can you not like the guy?

I just think in the case of him going up against his first real slickster style, a style that seems to adapt to the fight, Pavlik hasn't shown any GREAT deal of adaptability, he hasn't needed too, he's steam rolled most of the guys he's fought.

OK on that note, I'm starting to really like you.:D

[PugilisticPower]

OK on that note, I'm starting to really like you.:D

hahaha, Got no problems with people that show admiration for a fighter but the way he posts about certain fighters here just bugs me.

Side note, I WANT Pavlik to win if they fight because it would give us a superstar, we need a superstar and if he did win against Calzaghe, having upset the odds several times prior, you'd have to say he's got an x-factor that isn't easy to analyse.

[pipe wrenched]

hahaha, Got no problems with people that show admiration for a fighter but the way he posts about certain fighters here just bugs me.

Side note, I WANT Pavlik to win if they fight because it would give us a superstar, we need a superstar and if he did win against Calzaghe, having upset the odds several times prior, you'd have to say he's got an x-factor that isn't easy to analyse.

Fine post. And I'm a long time believer in that X-factor that even a lot of ESB's top P4P analyst have missed on a few occasions.

The Miranda fight, I could count on one hand the Pav fans on here backing him for that. Taylor I, most gave no chance in hell.


The second fight the board almost came to 50/50 though, and I'm noticing here lately the work put in by me and the original team Pavlik pioneers on here has not been in vain. Starting to see quite a bit of people coming to the home team.

I tell you what is a bitch though, I saw Amsterdam taking like a 1 year ban bet on Pav to beat Taylor, and naively, I thought COOL man, one of the top dogs really believes in my guy. But low and behold, it was just to make fun of Taylor for getting starched by a "shitty B- Level guy, that really sucks", just to prove his "point" about how shit JT was in his opinion.

[Auracle21]

pavlik adapted against taylor. he adapted against zertuche. and overpowered a cat who was supposed to be stronger and quicker(miranda). he will win this fight. his power will be too much for calzaghe. if b hop can knock down calxaghe with a simple counter imagine wat the power of a pavlik fight can do. pavlik via ko in round 9

[PrideOfWales]

pavlik adapted against taylor. he adapted against zertuche. and overpowered a cat who was supposed to be stronger and quicker(miranda). he will win this fight. his power will be too much for calzaghe. if b hop can knock down calxaghe with a simple counter imagine wat the power of a pavlik fight can do. pavlik via ko in round 9

If Pavlik wins this fight by KO, I can't see it being late like that as Calzaghe sets a ferocious pace. It's the kind of pace that cannot be replicated against any other fighter. If it goes 9 rounds, I don't foresee Pavlik having that much left to stop Joe with.

Do you see it being fairly even until that point?

[41fever]

Lots of interest is being generated by this fight and while most of us know that it’s just to keep Roy Jones Jr honest in his negotiations, lets see how some of you think this fight will play out.

Pavlik

Strengths: Durability, Power, Heart, Stamina, Come Forward style, Relaxed even under pressure
Weaknesses: Predictable fighting style, hasn’t shown adaptability so far, Taylor showed he can be countered and beaten to the punch, has gone down in several fights, including being hurt badly by Taylor

Usual Gameplan: Keep the other fighter on the backfoot, war of attrition, knows he’s likely to be hit but backs himself to hit the other fighter more and really comes down to balls vs balls

Calzaghe

Strengths:: Durability, Super Human Stamina, Heart, Super Boxing IQ, Adaptability, Footwork, Handspeed
Weaknesses: Showboater, Doesn’t sit down on punches due to hand problems, Can be easy to hit early in the fight

Usual Gameplan: Varies from fight to fight, used the jab to great effect against Kessler, works in behind the jab to get close to flurry, often gets in brawls with fighters.

Analysis

Pavlik will attempt to back Calzaghe up, but the comeforward style of Pavlik should give Calzaghe lots of opportunities to counter, land shots and get out of the way, ala Lacy and similar to the mid to late rounds vs Kessler.

Joe will get hit early in the fight by a right hand or two but his beard is good enough that it won’t damage him, later in the fight he should take the right hand away from Pavlik like he did against Hopkins.

Pavlik will keep coming forward, throwing punches and trying to land the right hand, I suspect he will seem to have success for three or four rounds until Joe works out his rhythm and starts to land more of his own.

Expect Joe to outjab Pavlik and land his left hook over the straight rights of Pavlik, similar to what Taylor was doing early in the fight. As the fight wears on, I think Pavlik will tire as most do against Calzaghe and we’ll likely see Calzaghe start flurring more, landing to the body and trying to land his uppercut which is now his most effective powershot.

Pavlik’s heart cannot be questioned but his chin can, I think he doesn’t have the speed of Kessler which should make it easier for Calzaghe to sit down on his punches and potentially put Pavlik away late.

Prediction: Calzaghe 118-112UD or R10TKO.

Reason: Calzaghe is still too fast and adaptable to be beaten by a come forward fighter like Pavlik. Pavlik is an accumulation puncher and will not put Joe down with one shot, Joe usually manages to nullify his opponents best weapon, i.e the Left hook with Lacy, the Jab with Kessler, the right hand from Hopkins later in the fight and I think he’ll do this against Pavlik. Will be a test for Pavlik to see how his heart is when he’s missing most his shots in the mid to late rounds and this could be a corner stoppage.

Fights to watch to get a feel for how this fight might go..

Calzaghe vs Veit, Woodhall, Reid, Kessler, Eubank

Pavlik vs Taylor II (the countering and fast right hands earlier by Taylor)
I think Pavlik is better than Sakio Bika. Bika gave JC HELL! Kelly has the style to give Joe fits and possibly beat him.

[Auracle21]

^^^^

pavlik always fights at a furious pace. he throws alotta punches. to me taylor is faster and a stronger hitter than calzaghe. i think pavlik has better stamina than people give him credit for. his power will be too much. i think the fight will be similair to the first taylor fight. he may lose a few rounds early but his power will be felt and will lead to a ko

[pipe wrenched]

Calzaghe in 5 rounds, Pavlik is not ready, nor will ever be ready for Joe Calzaghe. This is a blue collar fighter vs. an executive fighter, just won't work.

My man, please if you will, describe the stoppage? Are we talking about a ref jumping in on some wild flurry type shit ala Manfredo?

Or do you think Joe's ferocious punching power will drop Pavlik and keep him down for the count?

In Pavlik's KD's he's suffered, from either a BIG shot, or a hellacious onslaught barrage by Taylor, he was up by the count of 2 at the latest.

[Auracle21]

cal has never fought someone with the power of pavlik. he will be dropped. its very simple

[PrideOfWales]

^^^^

pavlik always fights at a furious pace. he throws alotta punches. to me taylor is faster and a stronger hitter than calzaghe. i think pavlik has better stamina than people give him credit for. his power will be too much. i think the fight will be similair to the first taylor fight. he may lose a few rounds early but his power will be felt and will lead to a ko

What does Pavlik have that the 45 opponents Calzaghe has faced don't? How can Pavlik, the lower weight division boxer, tag and stop a man in a higher weight class who has a proven chin and punch resistance against heavy punchers?

I'm not trying to be smart, I'm just curious to find out why you think what you do.

[PrideOfWales]

cal has never fought someone with the power of pavlik. he will be dropped. its very simple

How do you rate Mitchell, Lacy, Kessler, Robin Reid's power compared to Pavlik?

I just don't see how he can have MORE power than these guys who caught Joe flush yet still couldn't end the fight.

[Auracle21]

i just think he is more powerful than all of them. kessler isnt anything special to me. robin reid was complete and probably a lil more complete than pavlik but nowhere near as powerful. i just think that pavlik is more powerful than all those u mentioned. i mean i hate analyzing fights because anything can happen i just beleive that pavlik will win. and it wont be a suprise to me. he is more complete than more people give him credit for in my honest opinion.

[Leeroy]

I think Calzaghe will give Pavlik fits on the inside. In a few fights that I've seen that an opponent opens up and throws flurries/combinations, Pavlik, covers up, is like a deer caught in headlights, and doesn't try to counter. Pavlik needs to be set, and have his opponent in perfect distance for Pavlik to land anything meaningful. Pavlik is a 1-2 fighter, and his most effective punch other than his jab, is his follow up right hand. Pavlik rarely lands the right hand without throwing his jab first. If Pavlik's jab isn't fast enough to pop Calzaghe, Pavlik's right hand will hit air all night long. And that's what I expect to happen.

Kelly Pavlik is extremely predictable, and Taylor showed this in the rematch, above all, avoiding Pavlik's right hand (for the most part). Pavlik was grinding, and only punching when Taylor wasn't - I know that sounds cliche, but it fits into my opening statement about Pavlik not being able to trade/counter effectively whilst his opponent is on the attack, or mounting pressure. This is noticeable in both of his fights with Taylor. Pavlik is too slow, and looping with his left hook i.e. a few times he was countered by Taylor in the rematch. Pavlik lacks punch creativity, and came up the ranks relying solely on his jab-right hand....Which always got the job done, but in the rematch with Taylor, Jermain, having already seen him once, knew all he had to do was avoid the big right. This left Kelly a basic fighter, needing to grind to get the win, whereas if he were to mix it up, I'm certain he would have gotten Jermain out of there before the bell sounded to end the fight. He didn't/doesn't mix it up, and I doubt he will have that oppurtunity against Calzaghe, who will not stand in front of Pavlik, and will not allow Pavlik to control the tempo of the fight.....Joe will look to offset Kelly, and make him uncomfortable with his angles and pressure.......

When the fight is on the inside, I feel Calzaghe will do some holding and hitting - and he might take Pavlik out of his game and get him frustrated.

All in all, I don't think Pavlik will be able to cope with Calzaghe's experience, ring intelligence, angles........And the key to the fight imo - Calzaghe's inside game and his ability to smother Pavlik's long punches.

[PrideOfWales]

i just think he is more powerful than all of them. kessler isnt anything special to me. robin reid was complete and probably a lil more complete than pavlik but nowhere near as powerful. i just think that pavlik is more powerful than all those u mentioned. i mean i hate analyzing fights because anything can happen i just beleive that pavlik will win. and it wont be a suprise to me. he is more complete than more people give him credit for in my honest opinion.

OK - fair enough... boxing is all about opinions I guess. I disagree of course, especially about the power issue. I think Pavlik has a very good dig for a Middleweight but will not carry that through to 168 for a while. Joe's chin is proven. Though put down by Hopkins, it was one minute into the fight and off balance against a guy who thrives on such opportunities. Pavlik tries to engineer his own openings and doesn't look for opponents mistakes. I just don't think that KP has enough dimensions to his game yet to get through 12 rounds with such an experienced busy wily old veteran. Joe's defence is sound enough to stay away from a sustained attack.

[PrideOfWales]

I think Calzaghe will give Pavlik fits on the inside. In a few fights that I've seen that an opponent opens up and throws flurries/combinations, Pavlik, covers up, is like a deer caught in headlights, and doesn't try to counter. Pavlik needs to be set, and have his opponent in perfect distance for Pavlik to land anything meaningful. Pavlik is a 1-2 fighter, and his most effective punch other than his jab, is his follow up right hand. Pavlik rarely lands the right hand without throwing his jab first. If Pavlik's jab isn't fast enough to pop Calzaghe, Pavlik's right hand will hit air all night long. And that's what I expect to happen.

Kelly Pavlik is extremely predictable, and Taylor showed this in the rematch, above all, avoiding Pavlik's right hand (for the most part). Pavlik was grinding, and only punching when Taylor wasn't - I know that sounds cliche, but it fits into my opening statement about Pavlik not being able to trade/counter effectively whilst his opponent is on the attack, or mounting pressure. This is noticeable in both of his fights with Taylor. Pavlik is too slow, and looping with his left hook i.e. a few times he was countered by Taylor in the rematch. Pavlik lacks punch creativity, and came up the ranks relying solely on his jab-right hand....Which always got the job done, but in the rematch with Taylor, Jermain, having already seen him once, knew all he had to do was avoid the big right. This left Kelly a basic fighter, needing to grind to get the win, whereas if he were to mix it up, I'm certain he would have gotten Jermain out of there before the bell sounded to end the fight. He didn't/doesn't mix it up, and I doubt he will have that oppurtunity against Calzaghe, who will not stand in front of Pavlik, and will not allow Pavlik to control the tempo of the fight.....Joe will look to offset Kelly, and make him uncomfortable with his angles and pressure.......

When the fight is on the inside, I feel Calzaghe will do some holding and hitting - and he might take Pavlik out of his game and get him frustrated.

All in all, I don't think Pavlik will be able to cope with Calzaghe's experience, ring intelligence, angles........And the key to the fight imo - Calzaghe's inside game and his ability to smother Pavlik's long punches.

This is an excellent post.

[PugilisticPower]

Fine post. And I'm a long time believer in that X-factor that even a lot of ESB's top P4P analyst have missed on a few occasions.

The Miranda fight, I could count on one hand the Pav fans on here backing him for that. Taylor I, most gave no chance in hell.


The second fight the board almost came to 50/50 though, and I'm noticing here lately the work put in by me and the original team Pavlik pioneers on here has not been in vain. Starting to see quite a bit of people coming to the home team.

I tell you what is a bitch though, I saw Amsterdam taking like a 1 year ban bet on Pav to beat Taylor, and naively, I thought COOL man, one of the top dogs really believes in my guy. But low and behold, it was just to make fun of Taylor for getting starched by a "shitty B- Level guy, that really sucks", just to prove his "point" about how shit JT was in his opinion.

Don't know about you but everytime I see Amsterdam post, I think of the fat comic book guy from the Simpsons.

I had Pavlik vs Miranda solely because I've had massive question marks around Miranda since the Abraham fight.

But I'll be honest and say I dropped 500 on Taylor against Pavlik and lost every cent. Became an overnight fan of Pavlik and bet on him for the second fight.

I hope the guy proves me wrong again against Calzaghe and that's not because I dislike Joe. Joe is my favorite fighter, but he's a retiring fighter and for the good of the sport, it would be better for Pavlik to win a fight and gain the respect that would come with it.

pavlik adapted against taylor. he adapted against zertuche. and overpowered a cat who was supposed to be stronger and quicker(miranda). he will win this fight. his power will be too much for calzaghe. if b hop can knock down calxaghe with a simple counter imagine wat the power of a pavlik fight can do. pavlik via ko in round 9

He didn't really adapt against Taylor, he just stopped showboating and sticking the chin out, went with the same gameplan and overcame Taylor in both fights, despite a better start to the fight by Taylor.

B-Hop is one of the craftiest punchers ever and caught Joe coming in with a punch he didn't see. The punch didn't hurt Joe in the sense of "OMG, this fighter could go out" - the fighter staggered Joe, he lost his footing and went down.

It wasn't a chin thing, it was more a balance thing and the unexpected punch.

Pavlik won't be KO'ing Joe, Joe doesn't get KO'ed.

I think Pavlik is better than Sakio Bika. Bika gave JC HELL! Kelly has the style to give Joe fits and possibly beat him.

Don't know what fight you saw, Bika didn't give Joe hell, he gave him a rough fight that was more a brawl than a boxing match but there was no point where one felt like Bika was going to win the fight.

Kelly has a come forward style that sets itself up off the jab, how many times have we seen Joe dominate this type of fighter? I've lost count.

^^^^

pavlik always fights at a furious pace. he throws alotta punches. to me taylor is faster and a stronger hitter than calzaghe. i think pavlik has better stamina than people give him credit for. his power will be too much. i think the fight will be similair to the first taylor fight. he may lose a few rounds early but his power will be felt and will lead to a ko

Can I have the weed you smoke if you think Taylor is a faster fighter than Calzaghe? Why was Calzaghe able to land triple the shots on Hopkins that Taylor was in that case?

Joe has been in with bigger punchers that Pavlik, Kessler could be considered one and he landed flush several times, Joe didn't blink.

I think Calzaghe will give Pavlik fits on the inside. In a few fights that I've seen that an opponent opens up and throws flurries/combinations, Pavlik, covers up, is like a deer caught in headlights, and doesn't try to counter. Pavlik needs to be set, and have his opponent in perfect distance for Pavlik to land anything meaningful. Pavlik is a 1-2 fighter, and his most effective punch other than his jab, is his follow up right hand. Pavlik rarely lands the right hand without throwing his jab first. If Pavlik's jab isn't fast enough to pop Calzaghe, Pavlik's right hand will hit air all night long. And that's what I expect to happen.

Kelly Pavlik is extremely predictable, and Taylor showed this in the rematch, above all, avoiding Pavlik's right hand (for the most part). Pavlik was grinding, and only punching when Taylor wasn't - I know that sounds cliche, but it fits into my opening statement about Pavlik not being able to trade/counter effectively whilst his opponent is on the attack, or mounting pressure. This is noticeable in both of his fights with Taylor. Pavlik is too slow, and looping with his left hook i.e. a few times he was countered by Taylor in the rematch. Pavlik lacks punch creativity, and came up the ranks relying solely on his jab-right hand....Which always got the job done, but in the rematch with Taylor, Jermain, having already seen him once, knew all he had to do was avoid the big right. This left Kelly a basic fighter, needing to grind to get the win, whereas if he were to mix it up, I'm certain he would have gotten Jermain out of there before the bell sounded to end the fight. He didn't/doesn't mix it up, and I doubt he will have that oppurtunity against Calzaghe, who will not stand in front of Pavlik, and will not allow Pavlik to control the tempo of the fight.....Joe will look to offset Kelly, and make him uncomfortable with his angles and pressure.......

When the fight is on the inside, I feel Calzaghe will do some holding and hitting - and he might take Pavlik out of his game and get him frustrated.

All in all, I don't think Pavlik will be able to cope with Calzaghe's experience, ring intelligence, angles........And the key to the fight imo - Calzaghe's inside game and his ability to smother Pavlik's long punches.

Great post and very similar to what I see the fight doing. I think Joe can actually beat Pavlik from the outside, regardless of his inside edge and I think Pavlik is almost a perfect style for him to showcase himself after the Bernard Hopkins result.

I could see a late corner stoppage but I don't see Pavlik being KOed.

OK - fair enough... boxing is all about opinions I guess. I disagree of course, especially about the power issue. I think Pavlik has a very good dig for a Middleweight but will not carry that through to 168 for a while. Joe's chin is proven. Though put down by Hopkins, it was one minute into the fight and off balance against a guy who thrives on such opportunities. Pavlik tries to engineer his own openings and doesn't look for opponents mistakes. I just don't think that KP has enough dimensions to his game yet to get through 12 rounds with such an experienced busy wily old veteran. Joe's defence is sound enough to stay away from a sustained attack.

Joe gets caught early, it's his big flaw in my book - against Kessler, Lacy and Hopkins he was taking shots early.

After Round 6? I haven't seen anyone land effective clean shots on Joe repeatedly.

[PrideOfWales]

After Round 6? I haven't seen anyone land effective clean shots on Joe repeatedly.

Robin Reid

[PugilisticPower]

Robin Reid

Interesting, considering Reid was getting beaten up in the final four rounds which made the split decision hilarious.

[PrideOfWales]

Interesting, considering Reid was getting beaten up in the final four rounds which made the split decision hilarious.

Joe was being tagged by single shots all through that fight. I don't think Reid was being beaten up at all. It was a close fight, a definite Calzaghe win, but Reid won a lot of rounds, and hit Joe repeatedly with the right hand all through the night.

[PugilisticPower]

Joe was being tagged by single shots all through that fight. I don't think Reid was being beaten up at all. It was a close fight, a definite Calzaghe win, but Reid won a lot of rounds, and hit Joe repeatedly with the right hand all through the night.

Up to Round 8 - you're right.

Past Round 8, watch the fight again. I just watched it recently.

[prideofvbeach]

Calzaghe would UD this if Arum can make it happen, but if there was a KO, it's Pavlik. And if a KO happened, it would be in the opening four rounds where Joe has always been his most vunerable. That's Pavlik's only hope to a win.

[prideofvbeach]

Of course, if Pavlik pulled a KO or TKO of Calzaghe inside four rounds, how huge would the Ghost become to boxing?

[KobeIsGod]

i dont think this is an easy fight to predict and nobody should be 100% confident in their man. both are top flight fighters with a very stange style mix. Id have to give calzaghe the very slight edge right now due to his experience, herky-jerky style, output, and chin. I just think Pavlik would have a hard time landing that big right hand consistently. He lacks that power left hook to keep Clazaghe honest.

calzaghe by narrow pts.

[slaughter]

Calzaghe would be too strong for Pavlik. It's a great fight probably. I was surprised that Hopkins was able to floor Calzaghe, so Pavlik might be able to hurt him. Taylor had Pavlik in deep trouble though, so Calzaghe would probably put him in deeper trouble.

[Ziggy Montana]

Pavlik will attempt to back Calzaghe up, but the comeforward style of Pavlik should give Calzaghe lots of opportunities to counter, land shots and get out of the way, ala Lacy and similar to the mid to late rounds vs Kessler.True though the double jab might cut some of the opportunities to counter. Problem with Pavlik is he doesn't vary his speed and placement much which would make it easier for Calzaghe to time it and counter.

[sic]

Pavlik will keep coming forward, throwing punches and trying to land the right hand, I suspect he will seem to have success for three or four rounds until Joe works out his rhythm and starts to land more of his own.

Expect Joe to outjab Pavlik and land his left hook over the straight rights of Pavlik, similar to what Taylor was doing early in the fight. As the fight wears on, I think Pavlik will tire as most do against Calzaghe and we’ll likely see Calzaghe start flurring more, landing to the body and trying to land his uppercut which is now his most effective powershot.

Pavlik’s heart cannot be questioned but his chin can, I think he doesn’t have the speed of Kessler which should make it easier for Calzaghe to sit down on his punches and potentially put Pavlik away late.Pretty much the scenario of the Kessler fight.

One thing though is Calzaghe cannot let Pavlik back him up against the ropes.

[PrideOfWales]

TUGdGGKHifQ

Can't see Joe being tagged this many times but the rest of the video is failry accurate.

[PugilisticPower]

That game looks pretty shit compared to FN3. A shame, I was hoping it would be good.

[pipe wrenched]

TUGdGGKHifQ

Can't see Joe being tagged this many times but the rest of the video is failry accurate.

Get the fook out of here with that shiz PoW! :lol: :rofl :lol: :rofl :tong

That shit looked like Balboa vs. Balboa in there.