*** Official Erik Morales v. David Diaz Analysis and Prediction Thread ***

[Decebal]

1. What are the best aspects of each fighter's game? How about their weaknesses?

2. What will they need to bring to the table to win against the other?

3. How will the fight most likely play out? Who will win at Lightweight?


Time to do some serious analytical work on this one.

Let's do this properly!

God knows there are some top analysts on this site. :good

[CrazyMac]

Ive gone for a Diaz knockout. I think us Morales fans could be in for a pretty horrible night like i was last week watching Gatti. I think Morales is well and trully shot now. He is off the back of 3 losses, 2 by knockout. His chin is done. The shots he was taking in the 3rd pac fight he was walking though in the 1st. Diaz is a strong fighter and should be to much for this Morales. Im gonna remember the Morales that went lefty in the last round just for kicks, going toe to toe with Pac. In Morales prime he would be able to take Diaz's shots and would win by decision

[Decebal]

I am a Morales fan. I like the way Morales fights with total commitment, hitting left, right, left, right, left, whilst standing right in your face. Like all the great Mexicans, he defends by attacking, and keeps bouncing back at you like a yo-yo. His balance is very good, even though it sometimes looks awkward. As is his footwork. He lunges at you and hits the target, and very quickly regains his baalance and carries on. He can take a punch, too! But you feel that behind it all, the engine of his style and success is his great heart. What a brave an honest fighter! What a great man...he was.

.....

But does the current Morales still have it - does he still have his great heart? Alas, I don't believe he does. The punches that he receives dishearten him more, they hurt him more. His lower confidence affected his balance and footwork too. He is reticent to commit wholeheartedly, he doesn't float so well either. But then, Pacquiao would dishearten anyone!

......

Morales has fought the very best and lost. He knows he wasn't good enough at that level. But in his next fight, he isn't fighting the very best. Diaz will get hit a lot. He doesn't defend well. He is not unpredictable. He is not fast. But he can take a punch and he can also hit back. Diaz will not be KOed by Morales. He might get TKOed though.
Also, he will bank on KOing Morales. It's the only way he can win the fight. He will not outscore Morales, not even the Morales of today.

.....

What is really worrying me is the weight at which the fight is made. It obviously disfavours Morales. He will not be as fast and as mobile. This is bad news for Morales. I don't know why he would accept to fight at that weight, given that he has been KOed recently. Maybe he thinks that he will still be fast enough.

.....

Motivation will be the key in this match. This really is about last chance saloon for Morales. He knows he has to win this one. But Diaz in on a winning streak. His morale will be relatively higher.

.....

I don't know what to predict. Either Diaz KO or Morales TKO/UD. If it's Diaz UD, then it's a boring fight and Morales is truly shot; better for him to be KO'ed all guns blazing than to run away all night. Morales is not what he used to be, but this is his last chance. Diaz isn't that good but he can punch and he is looking forward. Unless we see something that looks like the old Morales, Diaz will beat him. But does he still have it in him to come back? I think not. I think the motivation is gone. The weight at which this fight is made is the biggest giveaway for me. Saying that, I would love to see the old Morales go out at least one more time!

Let's hear form the analysts now.

[Golden Boy]

Diaz > Morales

[Decebal]

Diaz > Morales

go on Golden Boy, impress us with your analysis of this fight! Chance to make a reputation for yourself!...

[Decebal]

where are the analysts? Analysing, I hope...because there's a vote running for the best of them, in the lounge!

[brooklyn1550]

Diaz UD

[Decebal]

Diaz UD

let's hear the analysis, please...why Diaz UD?:think what is the determining factor for you?

[H .]

I've seen David Diaz fight, and the kid has heart. He's a real warrior, but not really that good. He's lucky to be a world champ, really lucky. He's more like one of those guys that should be a WBO NABO champ.
Then there's the legendary Erik Morales, no longer looking legendary. He looked horrible in his last bout against Pac Man, looked pretty bad in his last and only fight at lightweight, and didn't look too great at the press conference for this upcoming fight. However, I think Morales will come prepared this time, I think he has a little juice left, and the experience to school a mediocre boxer in Diaz. Diaz will stay in front of him, and that is good for Morales.
I am a fan of Chicago-native Diaz, but he's just out of his league this time. Morales by UD

[Decebal]

I've seen David Diaz fight, and the kid has heart. He's a real warrior, but not really that good. He's lucky to be a world champ, really lucky. He's more like one of those guys that should be a WBO NABO champ.
Then there's the legendary Erik Morales, no longer looking legendary. He looked horrible in his last bout against Pac Man, looked pretty bad in his last and only fight at lightweight, and didn't look too great at the press conference for this upcoming fight. However, I think Morales will come prepared this time, I think he has a little juice left, and the experience to school a mediocre boxer in Diaz. Diaz will stay in front of him, and that is good for Morales.
I am a fan of Chicago-native Diaz, but he's just out of his league this time. Morales by UD

Thank you for your contribution!

[BoppaZoo]

Morales UD

why is he is just a more complete fighter and alot more Ring savvy.
now alot think Morales is done after losing his last 3 fights but look at who he fought.

Raheem
Pacquiao 1,2

Now they are tough fights no matter which way you look at it. Morales is infact younger than Diaz.

and also with Diaz he has looked ordinary against the likes of Ortiz (16-8-0) and Favela(11-10-4. we are talking about very average fighters here.

Morales has a reach advantage aswell as the smarts to beat this guy.

for the Morales fans i think this will be a great way to go out because i bet Erik wouldnt want to finish his career with 4 loses. i think he wants this fight bad. and that will be enough to get him over the line.

Morales UD 117-112

[Decebal]

Morales UD

why is he is just a more complete fighter and alot more Ring savvy.
now alot think Morales is done after losing his last 3 fights but look at who he fought.

Raheem
Pacquiao 1,2

Now they are tough fights no matter which way you look at it. Morales is infact younger than Diaz.

and also with Diaz he has looked ordinary against the likes of Ortiz (16-8-0) and Favela(11-10-4. we are talking about very average fighters here.

Morales has a reach advantage aswell as the smarts to beat this guy.

for the Morales fans i think this will be a great way to go out because i bet Erik wouldnt want to finish his career with 4 loses. i think he wants this fight bad. and that will be enough to get him over the line.

Morales UD 117-112

I hope you're right! Thanks for the answer!:good

[david6w]

I am not going to give away the entire result but don't expect any miracles.

[Decebal]

I am not going to give away the entire result but don't expect any miracles.

so why Diaz UD/SD? What makes the biggest difference to you, in Diaz' favour?

[Golden Boy]

go on Golden Boy, impress us with your analysis of this fight! Chance to make a reputation for yourself!...

I'm sorry but my english is not the best:) I think that Diaz > Morales becouse he is strongest than Erik.I prefer David's style of fight,and he is in my 'favourite boxing fighters' so u know:) And in my opition Diaz is clever than Morales.

I try make a reputation for myself but it's not the most important for me. The most important is reputation on the ring.

[Decebal]

I'm sorry but my english is not the best:) I think that Diaz > Morales becouse he is strongest than Erik.I prefer David's style of fight,and he is in my 'favourite boxing fighters' so u know:) And in my opition Diaz is clever than Morales.

I try make a reputation for myself but it's not the most important for me. The most important is reputation on the ring.

Thanks! You are the first person I have ever heard to support David Diaz more than any other fighter...!:lol:

Good luck with the boxing!:good

[LeedsLad]

Im a big Erik Morales fan too. It has been a pleasure to watch the wars he has been involved over the last years, i dont know if anyone in history has ever been through two trilogies like Morales has with MAB and Pacman.

Obviously, its fair to say Morales is not the fighter he once was, but i dont think hes as shot as alot of people make out. At this stage in his career, speed will kill Morales. It showed clearly in the third Pac fight, he cant handle speed anymore. David Diaz has alot of heart and is a good warrior, but he doesnt have the type of speed to trouble Erik. I can see Morales boxing his way to a clear UD here, but i dont expect him to beat any live champions in the future.

Morales to be the first Mexican four-weight world champion:good

[peter5]

[quote=Decebal]I

......

Morales has fought the very best and lost. He knows he wasn't good enough at that level.

Not good enough at that level? So he wasnt world class? i guess he was a b level fighter then?:shock:

[Decebal]

Morales to be the first Mexican four-weight world champion:good

Man, I hope you're right! I really do!:good

[Decebal]

[quote=Decebal]I

......

Morales has fought the very best and lost. He knows he wasn't good enough at that level.

Not good enough at that level? So he wasnt world class? i guess he was a b level fighter then?:shock:

He is elite of course, better than world level, but not good enough to beat Pacman at his best. The bar was raised by the latter so high that Morales had to say: "Ok, that's me finished...I cannot compete with that!" (I meant to say: at "MP's level")

[peter5]

[quote=peter5]

He is elite of course, better than world level, but not good enough to beat Pacman at his best. The bar was raised by the latter so high that Morales had to say: "Ok, that's me finished...I cannot compete with that!" (I meant to say: at "MP's level")

correct me if im wrong, but Morales beat Pac Man didnt he?

[Decebal]

[quote=Decebal]

correct me if im wrong, but Morales beat Pac Man didnt he?

yes, of course he did! But I'm talking about their last fight...the tables have turned for good.

[peter5]

[quote=peter5]

yes, of course he did! But I'm talking about their last fight...the tables have turned for good.

OK, OK, by the way, I reckon Morales KO Diaz, for what its worth!

[Decebal]

[quote=Decebal]

OK, OK, by the way, I reckon Morales KO Diaz, for what its worth!

KO! Wow...I can see TKO...but KO? He'd be as good as he's ever been then! Let's hope you're right!:yep

[peter5]

[quote=peter5]

KO! Wow...I can see TKO...but KO? He'd be as good as he's ever been then! Let's hope you're right!:yep

I hope so too mate, optimistic maybe, but hey, always look on the bright side!:good

[david6w]

Decibel, I voted Diaz UD... but now I am leaning more toward a Morales UD. Diaz is too much of a chump and I just don't think he will outbox Morales nor stop him with his sad offensive arsenal. don't make a bet cause of me though. Keep in mind Diaz rehydrates to 150lb come fight night.

[McGrain]

Diaz late stoppage.

[Decebal]

Decibel, I voted Diaz UD... but now I am leaning more toward a Morales UD. Diaz is too much of a chump and I just don't think he will outbox Morales nor stop him with his sad offensive arsenal. don't make a bet cause of me though. Keep in mind Diaz rehydrates to 150lb come fight night.

I'm not going to bet on this...too risky...and I don't want to break my winning streak.

[Decebal]

would be interesting to hear from Morales backers...is he not shot, or shot, but still good enough to beat David Diaz?

[enzo]

He is shot. nuff said...

[psychopath]

would be interesting to hear from Morales backers...is he not shot, or shot, but still good enough to beat David Diaz?

I don't know, I would like to believe Morales is not shot, he's just mentally wrecked and terrified when he is facing Pacquaio.

This time he is coming in from a long rest and I'm expecting him to be fully pumped up for this fight. And this time I'm expecting him to fight smart. David Diaz is not as fast and can't pressure Erik like Pac does so I'm expecting him to box Diaz and keep him away.

A decission win for Erik.

[theHawtness]

What is really worrying me is the weight at which the fight is made. It obviously disfavours Morales. He will not be as fast and as mobile. This is bad news for Morales. I don't know why he would accept to fight at that weight, given that he has been KOed recently. Maybe he thinks that he will still be fast enough.


he is looking for his fourth world title, hence the title "War for 4"! he wants to be LW champion!

i think this is a good move for erik. he has no business left in FW. he has already fought and got beat by all the tough dogs there.

[H .]

Just two more days. I will be attending the weight-in tommorrow.

[Decebal]

Just two more days. I will be attending the weight-in tommorrow.

Good stuff, I am relying on you to inform us of what the guys looked like and what you think the weigh-in gave away about the likely performace of each...;)

[H .]

Good stuff, I am relying on you to inform us of what the guys looked like and what you think the weigh-in gave away about the likely performace of each...;)

Of course I will :good

But for now, from what I've been reading in the local papers, Morales looks great and feels great. Diaz is very determined and says the title is staying in Chicago.
We'll see.

[Decebal]

Of course I will :good

But for now, from what I've been reading in the local papers, Morales looks great and feels great. Diaz is very determined and says the title is staying in Chicago.
We'll see.

I think that if Morales is 80% what he used to be...there's no doubt who wins it, irrespective of the form Diaz is in...so, it's really Morales that I'm interested in...

[Decebal]

the split in the poll reflects bookies' odds.

[H .]

Good stuff, I am relying on you to inform us of what the guys looked like and what you think the weigh-in gave away about the likely performace of each...;)

Should I ask anything in particular?

[El Bombasto]

morales is washed-up

[Fedor Em]

I just think Erik has been in too many wars. I hope Morales wins, but I think Diaz stops him late with the scorecards slightly in Morales' favor.

[H .]

morales is washed-up

We'll see ... :hey

[brooklyn1550]

let's hear the analysis, please...why Diaz UD?:think what is the determining factor for you?

At this stage, I just think Morales is shot. His legs aren't what they used to be and I think Diaz's physical strength is superior and I also think he will rough Morales up and wear him down. Morales has an edge in boxing skills, but is not a natural lightweight. Down the stretch, I see Diaz having more in the tank and outworking Morales. Morales will always have his moments, but in the end, I see a UD for Diaz or possibly a late knockout depending how far Morales has fallen and how much effective pressure Diaz is able to apply. Hopefully I am wrong and El Terrible has his last great performance and can retire on a high note.

[H .]

Hopefully I am wrong and El Terrible has his last great performance and can retire on a high note.

Yeah, that would be nice :yep

[Zakman]

Diaz is going to win a wide UD, maybe even stop Morales late. Morales is done, done, done, Fighters with his sort of style don't usually last long, and he's basically been living on borrowed time his last several fights. Diaz is certainly a cut below in ability, but Morales has slid so far, it won't matter.

[Decebal]

Should I ask anything in particular?

I'm no expert...but a general impression would be good!:good

[H .]

I'm no expert...but a general impression would be good!:good

Cool, I'll have something posted hopefully within the next 6 hours.

[H .]

I'm glad I got everyone's weight since most other sources didn't stick around for all the weights, or the guys looking waiting for a 2nd try (example: Shay Mobley).

Erik Morales 135 vs David Diaz 133.75
Juan Manuel Lopez 120.5 vs Hugo Dianzo 122
Ulises Solis 108 vs Rodel Mayol 108
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. 152 vs Louis Brown 148.75
Bernabe Concepcion 122 vs Gabriel Elizondo 121.5
Donovan George 168 vs Shay Mobley 168
Mercito Gesta 130 vs Carlos Madrid 132
Michael Walker 159.5 vs Dante Craig 159.5
Victor Polyakov 158 vs Jesse Orta 161
Joey Abell 242 vs Mike Sheppard 216.5

Morales looked pretty drained, but insisted that he feels great and more comfortable at 135 (he clearly didn't make it on the first try).

I can't give names, but most folks felt that Diaz was an easy pick for tomorrow night.

[Morrissey]

surprised that EM is favored here...

[Decebal]

I'm glad I got everyone's weight since most other sources didn't stick around for all the weights, or the guys looking waiting for a 2nd try (example: Shay Mobley).

Erik Morales 135 vs David Diaz 133.75
Juan Manuel Lopez 120.5 vs Hugo Dianzo 122
Ulises Solis 108 vs Rodel Mayol 108
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. 152 vs Louis Brown 148.75
Bernabe Concepcion 122 vs Gabriel Elizondo 121.5
Donovan George 168 vs Shay Mobley 168
Mercito Gesta 130 vs Carlos Madrid 132
Michael Walker 159.5 vs Dante Craig 159.5
Victor Polyakov 158 vs Jesse Orta 161
Joey Abell 242 vs Mike Sheppard 216.5

Morales looked pretty drained, but insisted that he feels great and more comfortable at 135 (he clearly didn't make it on the first try).

I can't give names, but most folks felt that Diaz was an easy pick for tomorrow night.

I feel the weight is verty telling! Thanks!:good I'm going with Diaz.

[Decebal]

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[Only registered and activated users can see links]

no prizes for guessing who looks good and who looks truly awful!

[boxbox]

[Only registered and activated users can see links]

[Only registered and activated users can see links]

no prizes for guessing who looks good and who looks truly awful!




Man! EM looks like he just had the flu!:shock:
deep inside im rooting for him...

[Decebal]

Man! EM looks like he just had the flu!:shock:
deep inside im rooting for him...

so am I; but I will put £5 on Diaz.

[LeedsLad]

I doubt Morales wins looking at the weigh-in pictures, but im still hoping for him!!

[psychopath]

Now that I've seen the weight in pix . . . I have serious doubt Erik will win this . . . but I'm still rooting for him. :yep

[ChampionsForever]

I dont know why people put an analysis on weigh in pics, they dont mean shit :-(,I hope and slightly lean towards Moraes edging out a decision, he wants this bad and Diaz is slo[Only registered and activated users can see links]

[Decebal]

I dont know why people put an analysis on weigh in pics, they dont mean shit :-(,I hope and slightly lean towards Moraes edging out a decision, he wants this bad and Diaz is slo[Only registered and activated users can see links]

I think in some cases, like in this, present case, they are quite indicative of the fighter's preparation for the fight, their readiness, desire and motivation, especially when you interpret them in the light of the weigh-in results and the context Morales finds himself in now. This is last chance saloon for the brave warrior. I expected him to look much better and have a lower weight than he does. As such, I find it impossible to compare him to a Phoenix. Diaz is bad, but he really seems to want this, so, being a betting man, I have to put the money on Diaz.

[psychopath]

I dont know why people put an analysis on weigh in pics, they dont mean shit :-(,I hope and slightly lean towards Moraes edging out a decision, he wants this bad and Diaz is slo[Only registered and activated users can see links]

Why? Well if the fighter do not look 100% and normal, it's indicative
of how physically prepared he is coming in into the fight.

[ChampionsForever]

Why? Well if the fighter do not look 100% and normal, it's indicative
of how physically prepared he is coming in into the fight.

It doesnt mean alot, if it did then Ken Norton and Frank Bruno would have been unbeaten, Morales looks like he always does, a skinny Mexican with a big nose.

GO EL TERRIBLE'!!!!!!!!!

[Decebal]

It doesnt mean alot, if it did then Ken Norton and Frank Bruno would have been unbeaten, Morales looks like he always does, a skinny Mexican with a big nose.

But does he really? I don't know how he looked before, when he was on a roll and winning...maybe someone can tell us!

GO EL TERRIBLE'!!!!!!!!!

Indeed!

[ChampionsForever]

But does he really? I don't know how he looked before, when he was on a roll and winning...maybe someone can tell us!



Indeed!

All im saying is don't look into how he looks to much it doesnt mean alot, you and I have both seen guys that look like a bum stripped to the waste but go 12 hard rounds without breaking a sweat. Lets just hope Morales wins!

[Decebal]

All im saying is don't look into how he looks to much it doesnt mean alot, you and I have both seen guys that look like a bum stripped to the waste but go 12 hard rounds without breaking a sweat. Lets just hope Morales wins!

You overestimate my knowledge of boxing, mate!;) But, yes, GO MORALES!:good

[nrgetic]

Diaz is goin to collect punishment coming in and that will be factor - he is slow and has poor defence. That said, if he gets inside with any degree of regularity then Morales is history

[H .]

Hopefully Morales can pull it off. If not, he'll retire and my boy Diaz from Chicago will have successfully defended his title.
At the weigh-in, I saw Diaz and I wanted to say "Hey, Juan, how's it going, hey,... I mean Julio, hey!"

[Decebal]

Hopefully Morales can pull it off. If not, he'll retire and my boy Diaz from Chicago will have successfully defended his title.
At the weigh-in, I saw Diaz and I wanted to say "Hey, Juan, how's it going, hey,... I mean Julio, hey!"

:lol:

I've put £5 on Diaz at 2/1. Also, £2 on Marquez at 2/5...clearly, I'm not going to be either rich or destitute tommorow morning...yet...I WOULD give £5 to ensure Morales' victory - I guess I just bought disappointment insurance.

[H .]

Well, looks like most people should've been right. According to the "robbery" poll, most say it was robbery, and most on here picked Morales. I hope not too many people lost money on Diaz getting the nod.

[Decebal]

I am sad for Morales. If it was indeed a robbery - I don't know, haven't watched the fight - it was disgraceful.

[Decebal]

For what it's worth, well done to those who've picked it, as well as to those who've picked Diaz to win.

brooklyn1550 ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
Danny Ocean ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
david6w ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
El Bombasto ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
FlatNose ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
samita ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
Tom the Wanker ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
turbotaylor ([Only registered and activated users can see links]),
Zakman ([Only registered and activated users can see links])

:good