***Ricky HATTON v. Jose Luis CASTILLO - Scenarios - WHAT TO EXPECT***

[Decebal]

Big fight is on Saturday, so it is time for all the serious boxing analysts to write about the stengths of the two fighters, their best features, the likely winning strategy for each, just like we did in the Bute v. Bika "what to expect" thread, with the two scenarios: A and B, describing how each would have to use their strengths to win. You have the floor.

[chliJs]

there are going to be 9,000 brits, at least someone posted that. plus all the crazy mexicans. also, there are castillo and hatton, two fighters that know of their potential to make this fight a crazy brawl. all this sounds just too perfect and too clear to really make the fight go this way. on the other hand, i don't know what else should happen. and i'm pretty sure the fight is going over 12 rounds. maybe there are going to be some knockdowns, but i don't see an early ending.

[Decebal]

Thanks for your answer. This thread is inteded for the best boxing analysts on ESB to analyse the strengths of the two fighters and find a strategy for each to win against the other. Then we will collate all the insightful comments and draw up a final strategy for each boxer. I find this exercise very useful as it prepares me for the fight - I know what to expect and what to look out for; it also makes the fight more interesting and it's a learning experience. It proved very useful when we did this for Bute v. Bika. :good

[Boro chris]

Many imponderables in this fight. Whos further over the hill,Castillo's apparently looked slow in his last fight,Hatton's suspect stamina(stamina being fairly important in a pressure fighter.)
Also physical strength at this weight, if, in the first clinch of the fight Hatton feels he's the stronger we might see less of his John Ruiz impersonation and we could see a great fight, if the opposite is true then expect something like the Urango match but with a different result.

[Decebal]

Hatton gets exposed .....floored 3 times and knocked out similar to Barry McGuigan vs Stevie Cruz

ok...but this is not a predictions thread; this is an analysis thread. How would Castillo have to fight in order for your prediction to be realised? What strengths/ shots/ moves would he have to use to achieve that? Analysis please!

[Boro chris]

Hatton gets exposed .....floored 3 times and knocked out similar to Barry McGuigan vs Stevie Cruz

Simular to McGuigan vs Cruz due to the fact McGuigan didn't get knocked out?

[amunz81]

Is This Fight On Ppv, Or Just Hbo?

[Shake]

Hatton has been looking very fit as of late. I expect him to have good lungs going into the fight. He's the younger fighter. It makes sense to bring the fight to Castillo and try to outwork him, wrestling him in clinches part-time with inside fighting added into the mix.

Castillo has a great body-attack. If he wants to win a war of attrition, he'll have to make his body-punching a factor in the match.

I don't think this match particularly lends itself to deep analysis. It's going to be mind over matter if Castillo is not too old and can make it competitive.

[Decebal]

Hatton has been looking very fit as of late. I expect him to have good lungs going into the fight. He's the younger fighter. It makes sense to bring the fight to Castillo and try to outwork him, wrestling him in clinches part-time with inside fighting added into the mix.

Castillo has a great body-attack. If he wants to win a war of attrition, he'll have to make his body-punching a factor in the match.

I don't think this match particularly lends itself to deep analysis. It's going to be mind over matter if Castillo is not too old and can make it competitive.

that's the kind of stuff I was looking for...thanks mate...and welcome aboard!

[Words]

OK well I see it panning out like this. In the early going its a fairly even toe-to-toe war, but Hatton is younger and stronger at the weight and just about gets the better of the serious exchanges. Castillo has been in with a lot of great fighters and been in a lot of wars so he'll be able to hang with ricky for a while and make it competetive, but Ricky is the younger man with the better stamina and will start to dominate. As Castillo's punch out-put begins to drop Ricky gets more confident and starts piling the pressure on, somewhere between rounds 4-6. Then, after that, it will be Castillo hanging on and pot shotting, with Hatton swarming all over him, dominating the action like he's used to. He's not been used to being in that dominating position that he was used to pre-Tszyu, so once the first half of the fight is over and Castillo is starting to feel the pace Hatton will get back into the zone and dominate the guy ruthlessly to a late stoppage or a conclusive points victory.

[El Bombasto]

there are going to be 9,000 brits, at least someone posted that. plus all the crazy mexicans. also, there are castillo and hatton, two fighters that know of their potential to make this fight a crazy brawl. all this sounds just too perfect and too clear to really make the fight go this way. on the other hand, i don't know what else should happen. and i'm pretty sure the fight is going over 12 rounds. maybe there are going to be some knockdowns, but i don't see an early ending.

expect a riot

[Sug3]

I expect hatton to bully castillo all night and it will be a great fight,until castillo fades and slows down the stretch.Cortez is known for letting fighter's take too much punishment and i hope if castillo start's taking too much of a beating i hope his corner throw's in the towel.

[Decebal]

:dead

[Amsterdam]

Here is what Hatton's game plan would consist of:

Boxing! Beating Castillo to the punch everytime, utilising his frantic workrate, superior speed and smart ring tactics to constantly have Castillo hit and not get any return fire from a veteran HOF bound inside fighter. He needs to hit, turn, move, slip and hold if necessary, but of course not "excessive clinching" like he has in the past.

Here is what Castillo's game plan would consist of:

Cutting off the ring, taking the fight into an inside brawl and using his precision accurate shots to the body to wear Hatton down and eventually dispose of him. I don't know what more I can explain, but he would need to take a few to land a good one and would have to maul Hatton inside the clinch also. Getting Hatton to brawl with him close, as well as getting Hatton in the corner and focusing on the body will be his ticket to a victory.

My prediction:

Hatton UD - 117-111. I also give Hatton a good chance of stopping Castillo late, but since Castillo is extremely tough and hard chinned, I'll take the decision pick.

[Brickhaus]

Scenario B (which assumes that Hatton is still getting too weight-drained, and that Castillo is semi-shot from his previous wars):

Hatton: Starts off the fight coming straight after Castillo, and tries to establish that he can beat Castillo to the punch. After a couple of rounds that he wins, he starts to get winded, and goes back to the jab and grab tactics of the past couple of fights, interspersed with small bursts of boxing, just enough to win some of the rounds. Expect Hatton to grab onto Castillo any time he gets anywhere near the ropes after about round 4.

Castillo: Tries to come in and crowd Hatton early, but Hatton comes out firing and he's forced to back out a bit. Later in the fight, whenever he tries to come in, Hatton clinches excessively. At this point, his fists are just too slow to beat Hatton to the punch, and he looks lethargic for much of the fight. During the few times when Hatton tries to trade, Castillo looks much better, possibly even rocking Hatton once or twice, but he's always able to recover with well-timed clinches.

My prediction - a good round 1, and a few more entertaining spots, but it mostly ends up being a matchup of two fighters who are a little too battle-worn. Hatton UD around 116-112.

I'm personally leaning towards this scenario over Amsterdam's. I think most people here give both of these fighters too much credit about how much they really have left in the tank. They've each looked like crap their past few fights for a reason.

[Decebal]

Scenario B (which assumes that Hatton is still getting too weight-drained, and that Castillo is semi-shot from his previous wars):

Hatton: Starts off the fight coming straight after Castillo, and tries to establish that he can beat Castillo to the punch. After a couple of rounds that he wins, he starts to get winded, and goes back to the jab and grab tactics of the past couple of fights, interspersed with small bursts of boxing, just enough to win some of the rounds. Expect Hatton to grab onto Castillo any time he gets anywhere near the ropes after about round 4.

Castillo: Tries to come in and crowd Hatton early, but Hatton comes out firing and he's forced to back out a bit. Later in the fight, whenever he tries to come in, Hatton clinches excessively. At this point, his fists are just too slow to beat Hatton to the punch, and he looks lethargic for much of the fight. During the few times when Hatton tries to trade, Castillo looks much better, possibly even rocking Hatton once or twice, but he's always able to recover with well-timed clinches.

My prediction - a good round 1, and a few more entertaining spots, but it mostly ends up being a matchup of two fighters who are a little too battle-worn. Hatton UD around 116-112.

I'm personally leaning towards this scenario over Amsterdam's. I think most people here give both of these fighters too much credit about how much they really have left in the tank. They've each looked like crap their past few fights for a reason.

Thanks very much for your contribution!:good

[Bazooka]

I fully expect to see two or three good rounds early of war, after Hatton feels the effects of the pressure and power of Castillo he will go back to one shot then a clinch the rest of the night.

[Guru_Too_You]

I fully expect to see two or three good rounds early of war, after Hatton feels the effects of the pressure and power of Castillo he will go back to one shot then a clinch the rest of the night.

Looks like we can agree from time to time.

[Bazooka]

Looks like we can agree from time to time.

Whats funny is that every now and then my two brain cells that I have left actually bump together and come up with a thought:good anyhow speaking of brain cells, I just had my third MRI last friday, and there is no brain damage, there is a nerve in my brain that is damaged serverly, and I have been advised no longer to spar or get hit, because if it gets bad enough I will have pain on both sides of the head rather than on the right side.
Good news though becuase the first MRI showed swelling so it looks like things are getting better for me as far as the brain goes.

[Guru_Too_You]

Whats funny is that every now and then my two brain cells that I have left actually bump together and come up with a thought:good anyhow speaking of brain cells, I just had my third MRI last friday, and there is no brain damage, there is a nerve in my brain that is damaged serverly, and I have been advised no longer to spar or get hit, because if it gets bad enough I will have pain on both sides of the head rather than on the right side.
Good news though becuase the first MRI showed swelling so it looks like things are getting better for me as far as the brain goes.

Damn dog. Take it easy for a while.

[Bazooka]

Damn dog. Take it easy for a while.

Thats what people have been telling me since this shit happend, I have started to listen in the last six months:good Anyhow Saturday should be a great fight as long as Ricky knows its boxing and not UFC or MMA or any of that but being that he is at the UFC gym I fully expect to see him fight the way he did last time out.

[Decebal]

Guys, nice thoughts, much appreciated...but could we try to flesh out the picture with more detail, please?:good

[Decebal]

:dead

[madjabber]

Although Castillo is a real Warrior getting his purse held back has got to take some of the fight out of him I say this fight will look like Hatton VS Urango it will be a little better but the Hitman will win UD over the Scary one.

[Decebal]

Although Castillo is a real Warrior getting his purse held back has got to take some of the fight out of him I say this fight will look like Hatton VS Urango it will be a little better but the Hitman will win UD over the Scary one.

Thanks for your post!

[roly]

the hatton that fought kostya will turn up, highly motivated and fitter than the last few fights, the first few rounds both fighters will take some good shots but from the 4th hatton will start to do some damage and gain confidence and castillo will be stopped on his feet around thbe 9th

[Decebal]

is consensus that for Castillo to win he would have to go flat out and KO Hatton?

[Decebal]

any more thoughts on this fight, or are we bored of the prospect already?:-(

[Amsterdam]

is consensus that for Castillo to win he would have to go flat out and KO Hatton?

He doesn't have to get a KO, but he'd have to get several KD's and generally get the best of him in enough rounds, because Hatton will hit Castillo a lot as Castillo is by no means anything but a face first, iron chinned come forward slugger.

I agree with Madjabber, expect Hatton to box and get a clear UD.

[Bazooka]

I have a very bad feeling about this fight, being that they are with holding Castillos purse, why should any fighter have to fight for free? seriously now I know he was being sued by Shaw and Corrales, but he couldnt have known Corrales was going to end up dead, so instead of him being able to make payments towards the lawsuite it seems like they are taking one big chunk all together pretty fucked up.
Anyhow another question I have is why didnt they do this for Castillos last fight why this one?:think

[spiderricco]

Hatton will wear down Castillo and win a decision or maybe get a late ko.

[Bazooka]

Castillo should just take a Knee as soon as the first bell sounds! and when he gets asked why he did that, he should say, would you fight for free? and he should also say, what you havent seen someone quit on the job before? what they are doing isnt right.

[brooklyn1550]

what they are doing isnt right.

:-( Absolutely, it's fucking bullshit and a disgrace to a great fighter

[Bazooka]

:-( Absolutely, it's fucking bullshit and a disgrace to a great fighter

My point is he should he allowed to make payments, there is no reason he should leave Vegas with out any of his purse this is just un American, Or is it?:think

[Words]

Didn't that happen to Roberto Duran when he fought William Joppy? All the cash from the fight went straight to the IRS or something, basically meaning that Duran was mugged by Joppy on behalf of the US government.

Y'know what I love boxing, but something this sport fucking stinks.

[brooklyn1550]

My point is he should he allowed to make payments, there is no reason he should leave Vegas with out any of his purse this is just un American, Or is it?:think

Good question

[sandwichsurgeon]

I hope HBO muscles in and puts shaw in his place, this move will put the fight in jeopordy meaning HBO's investment in this fight may come to nothing.

[Bazooka]

I hope HBO muscles in and puts shaw in his place, this move will put the fight in jeopordy meaning HBO's investment in this fight may come to nothing.

Shaw should have considered that before "USING" Chico as an excuse to pull this shit, I mean lets be fucking honest here for a second, Shaw is using the death of Corrales to get away with this shit, Not good for the sport at all, and it might seriously damage his future relationship with HBO and the sport itself.
This is something that should have been handled long ago, prior to the fight I mean he had a chance to get some money out of him for the last fight.
Pathetic, perhaps Shaw himself needs the money

[Decebal]

:dead

[Decebal]

:tired