Pavlik vs Taylor betting line- a sucker's bet?

[Rock0052]

I rarely bet on fights, but right now the "under" is at 11.5 rounds at -160. I see no way under which this fight goes the distance, so I put a few dollars down on it...but it seems a little weird to me that the bookmakers set it so late in a fight like this which has "early ending" written all over it.

What's your guys' take on it? Is there something I'm missing?

[PH|LLA]

I rarely bet on fights, but right now the "under" is at 11.5 rounds at -160. I see no way under which this fight goes the distance, so I put a few dollars down on it...but it seems a little weird to me that the bookmakers set it so late in a fight like this which has "early ending" written all over it.

What's your guys' take on it? Is there something I'm missing?
Taylor UD

[marauder1999]

Wow. very interesting---id bet the same you did. No way these 2 go the distance.

[brooklyn1550]

I'd definitely bet the under

[C Money]

Taylor could out box Pavlik and if that happens it likely wont end in a KO.

Betting the over is basically betting on Jermain:good

If you believe in Pavlik, bet him and the under!!!

I'm rooting for Pavlik but this will be a tough fight regardless of the outcome, taylor has an amateur win over Pavlik and will follow the same pattern of jabbing and countering forcing Pavlik to take the risks.

[PH|LLA]

my take on it is that both these fighters get tired in the later rounds, and Taylor is too good for Pavlik to land his power shots as consistently as he did against Miranda, while Taylor won't gun for the KO knowing that Pavlik throws bombs

The last 4 rounds of this fight are gonna be sloppy but it will go the distance

[BlueApollo]

my take on it is that both these fighters get tired in the later rounds, and Taylor is too good for Pavlik to land his power shots as consistently as he did against Miranda, while Taylor won't gun for the KO knowing that Pavlik throws bombs

The last 4 rounds of this fight are gonna be sloppy but it will go the distance

With you 100% on this one. :goodTaylor has country ass fundamentals, but he also has a country ass chin.

[H .]

Shit, this is tough, but my gut's telling me... Taylor UD

[C Money]

my take on it is that both these fighters get tired in the later rounds, and Taylor is too good for Pavlik to land his power shots as consistently as he did against Miranda, while Taylor won't gun for the KO knowing that Pavlik throws bombs

The last 4 rounds of this fight are gonna be sloppy but it will go the distance

Pavlik is a PUNCHER and punchers generally win when utilizing what they do best. To me it comes down to how much Pavlik has improved his game, the difference of the PRO GAMe, and whether Taylor can do what he does for 12 rounds. Make no mistake, Pavlik has NO INTENTION of going the distance, that's not how he's "built" so to speak. If it does go the distance? Taylor may well be the winner.

Now, if you revisit the first Hopkins fight when Bernard had taylor in a bad way late?? Pavlik has better power and the drive to capitalize. If he catches taylor as Hop's did? It aint going the distance:good

[El Bombasto]

Seems pretty reasonable to me. Taylor has way more 'Big Fight' experience than KP, he and should be able to control the fight and win a fairly uneventful decision. Beating the shit out of Miranda is one thing, and although Taylor's fundamentals are pretty limited, he at least has some defense and is strong enough to force KP into a sloppy/possibly boring fight.

[Sweet Scientist]

Well Rock, I bet all the time, and I would say that -160 is just about right for Taylor-Pavlik.

First off, if Jermain wins, there's no way the fight goes under. You saw Pavlik's chin against Miranda and JT is no knockout artist.

Second, it's not going to be easy for Pavlik to get the KO. JT doesn't have a china chin and his defense is pretty good.

That said, if Pavlik does win, it will likely be by KO. I'm putting a good deal of money on Pavlik, but I'm not going to couple it with the under because -160 is just not attractive enough. Though, I'll give you that I would expect it to be -200ish.

[PH|LLA]

Now, if you revisit the first Hopkins fight when Bernard had taylor in a bad way late?? Pavlik has better power and the drive to capitalize. If he catches taylor as Hop's did? It aint going the distance:good
big if

Hopkins is on a whole other level than Pavlik is

[ichinisanyongo]

which one of these fighters have been stopped before?

[C Money]

big if

Hopkins is on a whole other level than Pavlik is

I'm not making the comparison between Hops and Pavlik as fighters, just situations. I hold a high respect for Taylor even though I'm rooting for Pavlik.

Like I said, how much Pavlik has improved his game and the transition too pro's from the amatuers where JT out boxed him will be determined. All, I can say is Pavlik is as hungry as can be and this fight can literally change his life. He will bring everything he has with no intent of seeing the final bell.

It's a great fight, may the best man win, and I'll salute the winner, no matter WHO IT IS:good

[Jose FM]

Pavlik TKO

[Rock0052]

Thanks for the input guys :good

[JETSKI]

which one of these fighters have been stopped before?

They are both undefeated. Taylor has 1 draw, against Winky Wright.

Taylor = 27-0-1, 17 KO's (63% KO's)

Pavlik = 31-0, 28 KO's. (90% KO's)

[El Bombasto]

They are both undefeated. Taylor has 1 draw, against Winky Wright.

Taylor = 27-0-1, 17 KO's (63% KO's)

Pavlik = 31-0, 28 KO's. (90% KO's)

Pretty good indicator of the quality of opposition each has faced.

[BewareofDawg]

When was the last time one of Taylors fights DIDN'T go the distance?????

[JETSKI]

I really like eveything about Pavlik, and I am definitely pulling for him to win, and a strong KO win is always the best way when winning a championship.

But I got to be fair and honest too. If Pavlik had fought Ouma, Spinks, Wright, and B-Hop in his last 5 fights his KO % might be down a little too, those are guys that are hard to hit cleanly.

But I Believe Pavlik would have destroyed Ouma, I think he would have applied a lot more pressure on B-Hop, Spinks, and Winky.

Taylor's ring intelligence just does not impress me, and the way he seems to go deaf to Steward's corner advice is really pretty amazing. I have yet to see Taylor follow any of Manny Steward's advice during a fight. It's almost funny, and the advice is good and easy to see as right, but Taylor just repeats exactly the same crap Steward tries to correct. It's probably the worst example of boxer/trainer compatibility I've ever seen.

I think Taylor is really coming to war with Pavlik, and I think many of us will be very surprised by his spirited performance, but I also think he will begin to tire after the 7th or so round, and Kelly will just beat him down for a late stoppage. I doubt that Kelly will get out of this fight clean, I bet he will look like he's been in a war, both will.

Excellent post. Damn good job!:good

[King Dan]

For once, I agree with JETSKI.