Boxing


Litzau vs. Guerrero: The Prediction and the Outcome

By Ted Sares - The Fight: Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero, 21-1-1, is the IBF featherweight title holder and plans to retain his title when he fights Jason “The American Boy” Litzau, 23-1, on February 29 at the Tachi Palace Hotel & Casino in Lemoore, California. Litzau has a lofty KO percentage of 79% vs. 61% for the Ghost, but that’s where the similarities appear to end..

Style

azquez marquezThe “American Boy” has the background and athletic ability to utilize technical skills to his advantage, but his mentality usually does not allow him to remain that disciplined. Instead of out boxing his opponents, he forces an all-out action brawl relying on his considerable power. Look for showboating, defensive lapses, punches thrown from anywhere and everywhere, and no shortage of action from this fan favorite. It’s just what he does and thus far, it has been a successful formula. While there is a matter of a suspect chin, the workmanlike and durable Ghost may not have the power to test it.

Prediction

On February 29, an aggressive, heavy-handed brawler will be fighting a driven, well-rounded southpaw who is more focused and strategic. Each will be supercharged emotionally. The thinking here is that Guerrero’s knock out of Honorio may be indicative of more than enough power to stop Litzau. On the other hand, if Litzau can avoid too many defensive lapses (a big “if“), he just may be able to stop the Ghost if he can get him to engage in enough furious exchanges.

On balance, I see Litzau showing his customary disdain for defense allowing Guerrero to win either by mid to late round stoppage or UD. One thing is certain. I will not miss this fight for anything.

Outcome

After trying to box during the first three rounds, “The American Boy” reverted to form and began exchanging with “The Ghost“. This, however, proved fatal as Guerrero used great head movement to avoid Litzau’s bombs and proceeded to pound him with heavier handed punches and sharp combinations. With a cut over Litzau’s left eye and a probable broken nose, it appeared only a matter of time before The Ghost would end matters. And he did just that by flooring Jason twice with flush and fully leveraged shots on his way to a late round KO as predicted. Guerrero’s game plan and his ability to stay with it, combined with superior power, proved the difference.

The Ghost’s last 14 wins have come by way of stoppage; he is now a force to be reckoned with in the featherweight division.


Ted Sares is the author of Boxing is my Sanctuary. Visit him on www.tedsares.com

Article posted on 01.03.2008



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