Calzaghe / Jones: The Handicappers Thread
01.11.08 - By Erik "stuck in a moment" Schaffer - Time for another installment of The Handicappers Thread as we go inside the numbers of the Joe Calzaghe / Roy Jones fight, which takes place on November 8 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. As always I will talk about the perception of the betting line, give a fight analysis and prediction on the fight during my article..
Article posted on 02.11.2008
Right now Joe Calzaghe is around a 3-1 favorite for this fight, which is down from the -350 he was when the line first opened. It seems many people are shocked that Calz would open at -350 over Jones because he was only -260 over Hopkins. I happen to feel -350 was a fair line and did expect it to drop. I expect Calz to enter the ring around -250. Roy Jones was convincing on the first show of the 24/7 series and he will talk a good game for the final 2 shows. He always looks in great shape and people seem to forget about his 2 KO loses. How else would he be able to land this fight? What I'm trying to say is that Roy Jones is one of those fighters that can make you think he still has a chance to win even though Calz has looked the better fighter in the last 5 years. Its the personality of Jones that landed him this fight. He's been talking about it since Calz beat Hopkins. Well now Roy Jones will get his wish as he meets Joe Calzaghe in the ring 1 week from today.
So lets talk about what will happen in this fight. First let me say I think Roy Jones was an amazing fighter in his prime and nobody from 160-175 pounds could beat him. He was doing things in the ring that looked unreal. This is 2008 though and a different Roy Jones will step in the ring on November 8. I know he is only 2 years older then Calz, but one fighter has lost his tools and the other still has them. Roy Jones had a reflex style that made his defense and those reflexes were also where the speed help produce his power. Those reflexes are gone now along with that speed and power. Joe Calzaghe has a working and busy type style that allows you to have a longer career. I don't see anything from Roy Jones in the last 4-5 years that makes me think he can beat a fighter like Joe Calzaghe, who at age 37 happens to be on top of his game. I see Calz being the aggressor in this fight. He will throw those buys combinations, which do have underrated speed to them. It takes movement to stop the work rate of Calz and Jones doesn't really move well anymore. Yes we will see some nice flurries from Jones, which may even look better then what Calz is throwing, but they wont be enough to hurt Calz. The lack of power and speed that Jones has these days along with the very underrated chin of Joe Calzaghe adds up to a long night for Jones, which leads me into my prediction.
I will not give Joe Calzaghe out alone as a prediction win because he is a 3-1 favorite and I don't want credit for predicting that a 3-1 favorite will win. But what I will do is take and give out Joe Calzaghe on a must win by decision final result bet, which should be around -160. Roy Jones will not go out in a blaze of glory and risk a KO loss. He will protect himself just enough to not get hurt in this fight and Calz is also lacking KO power these days. We also have to throw in the fact that the total for this fight is 9.5 rounds -330 over, which means Vegas is expecting a distance fight and I agree. Calz by wide UD on a final result bet is the best way to win in this fight.
The last Handicappers Thread was a prediction win with Chad Dawson beating Antonio Tarver. Our record is 1-0.
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