Rogan vs. Sexton: Styles Make Fights, Should Be Good
By Coach Tim Walker - I make an effort to learn who the fighters are, who they've fought and who the fighters they've fought have fought. I use all of this to assess the level of skill they have and how far it seems they can go in the sport. Most of the time, it's easy to assess a fighter's skill level. Other times it's not so easy.
Article posted on 09.05.2009
In the case of Martin Rogan and Sam Sexton I must admit that I had only recently heard of Rogan and had never heard of Sexton until he was announced as Rogan's opponent. That is not to say that they aren't good fighters. I just didn't know much about them. Thus analyzing a fight and fighters I know little about will prove itself to be a bit arduous. Nevertheless it is the task that is set before me..
To do this effectively I had to go into my "woodshed" so to speak. My "woodshed" is my analogy for a time of study and investigation. For this fight I've been in my "woodshed" for quite some time and I hope that my effort makes this fight a bit more transparent to you.
Inside Sam Sexton
I went inside his 11-1-0 record and discovered that it isn't real. His opponent's combined records at the time he fought them is 108-194-21 (33% winning ratio) andīthose same opponents today have a combined record of 110-229-21 (30% winning ratio). What's even more telling is that against the extremely low competition he has faced he mustered only 4 knockouts and was knocked out in his single loss to Derek Chisora who, by the way, isn't a world beater at this stage either. What does this mean? Well it's actually not too bad for a new heavyweight to get a few cream puffs at the onset of his career but Sexton isn't a new heavyweight. He has been a pro for nearly 5 years. Thus his record is not real in the sense that he isn't an elite heavyweight and shouldn't be under the misconception that he will be an elite heavyweight. Still, you don't have to be a world beater to be a fan favorite. Fact is, Sexton puts it on the line. The bell goes ding and he starts swinging! He offers very little defense or footwork which means he's there to be hit as much as he hits. Fans like him.
Inside Martin Rogan
I went inside Martin Rogan's 12-0-0 record and discovered that it is real. Like Sexton his opponents, current combined record of 148-211-14, lose more than they win but there is something different in how Rogan is being developed. When you look at the tail end of his resume you notice that the quality of his opponents has increased lately (60-6-0). In that you see wins over Audley Harrison, Matt Skelton (beat by KO) and a couple of newcomers in Davis Dolan (cruiserweight) and David Ferguson. Thus he has beaten a couple of guys who were at least mentioned in discussions about heavyweight title challengers. What's the problem? His age! Rogan is 38 years of age and while boxers definitely seem to be fighting longer these days the glass ceiling for Rogan is fortified against solid rock. In other words, there is no room for error on his part because he hasn't done enough to establish himself on a world level and he's not in a position where he can take two years to start over. He is a position where he must either, "Win or go home!" Rogan fights at close range and therefore can be hit as much as he hits.
Fight Analysis & Prediction (Dare I Say!)
Both fighters are products of the Prizefighter Heavyweight Tournament which seems to have brought both of them back to life. Their fight is 12 rounds for the Commonwealth (British Empire) Heavyweight Title. Sexton has been scheduled for one 10 round fight which he won by TKO. Rogan on the other hand went 10 rounds with Audley Harrison and knocked out Matt Skelton in round 11 of their scheduled 12 rounder.
Power: Edge to Rogan (more quality knockouts against better competition)
Toughness: Edge to Rogan (spars regularly with bare knuckle fighters, wow!)
Experience: Edge to Rogan (has faced higher level of professional fighter)
Ring Generalship: Even
Prediction: Rogan will give Sexton his second loss by KO within 8 rounds.
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