Mayweather Vs Marquez – Breaking down the fight... for Money.
By Steven “Chunks” Chang - Notable Facts, Speculations & Rumours
Article posted on 07.09.2009
Weight - Marquez is coming up 2 weight divisions for this fight.
- Both fighters have started at lower weight divisions and have come up in weight over the years.
- Mayweather’s average weight for his last five fights is 147.2 lb (66.9 kg).
- Marquez’s average weight for his last five fights is 131.5 lb (59.8 kg).
Marquez is coming up significantly in weight to face the naturally larger Mayweather. However, considering Floyd’s style, it is unlikely that Floyd will use his size advantage to bully Marquez. Even at welterweight, Floyds punching power is not very significant (Hatton knocked himself out by leaping into a perfectly timed Mayweather left hook) and he hurts people through a culmination of speedy punches. It is also common knowledge that for a good part of Floyd’s career, he has been riddled with hand problems..
It will be interesting to see how Marquez’s body deals with the sudden increase in weight and if he will have the speed and stamina to gather points against the slick Mayweather. A notable point about Marquez is that he is an extremely crafty fighter that is quick to think in the ring. In previous fights he has shown a lot of heart and an amazing adaptable nature to come back and break down formidable opponents. Marquez does have a lot of natural ability but it is ring smarts that has got him this far, the weight shouldn’t be as big a factor as some say it will be.
Floyd’s Inactivity (Ring Rust)
- It will be just under 2 years since Floyd’s last fight against Ricky Hatton.
- History has proven that ring rust is not a big factor for all fighters:
-Kostya Tszyu had a 2 year break before KO Sharmba Mitchell in 3.
-Sugar Ray Leonard had a 3 year break before coming back to scrape the win against Marvin Hagler (Controversial).
-Vitality Klitschko just came back from a 4 year retirement to stop Samuel Peters in 8.
-Floyd seems to have stayed in a reasonable condition during his retirement (and throughout his career)
Floyd is only 32 years old
- It is unlikely that he would have to have spent too much of his training camp getting into peak condition again.
Floyd has had the same if not similar defensive style throughout his whole career; it is unlikely that he will change his style for this fight.
- Pretty boy Floyd, it's not just a nick name, the man hardly gets hit with anything significant and a loss of ability due to worsening brain damage is not a factor.
Ring rust is a pretty general term but the factors that really contribute to it are time away from the ring, how the fighter treats his body in between fights and other factors involving brain damage. With these factors considered, unless something is a wry in his preparations, it should be the same Floyd that fought Hatton entering the ring, come fight night.
- Floyd’s trainer and uncle, Roger Mayweather, was arrested by police for beating and choking one of his female fighters to the point of near unconsciousness.
- The fight has been delayed due to an injury involving Floyd’s rib cartilage.
It is anyone’s guess how this incident with Roger may affect Floyd’s preparations, but Floyd is no stranger to family drama involving his father/uncle, during fight preparation and it never seemed to affect him before. There are some concerns that Floyd was inclined to go into the fight slightly under prepared, with a rib injury, so that the fight could be held on Mexican Independence Day and to distance the fight from the November Pacquiao Vs Cotto Fight. Most rumours from camps however, state that preparations for both Marquez and Mayweather are going well.
Rounds – The fight will go the distance (very confident).
(Around 1.57 odds)
Floyd usually KOs his opponents with an accumulation of punches. The boxers that have been knocked out by him in the past have either jumped into a perfectly timed counter punch (Hatton), cannot handle his speed (Gatti) or cannot adapt to his style (Corrales). Marquez is a crafty veteran who takes his time; he won’t be leaping in with his head up any time soon. His ability to handle speedy fighters has been proven, most notably against Manny Pacquiao. Being the thinking fighter, Marquez is more than likely to adapt to any style that Floyd brings on the night.
I can’t see Marquez knocking out Mayweather even though Marquez also has a terrific knockout record. Mayweather is a cautious fighter that has had the same defensive style throughout his whole career and no matter how much ring rust or under preparation, I don’t doubt Mayweather’s ability to keep himself safe throughout the fight. Marquez is also coming up in weight and with most fighters that go up in weight; they usually lose some of their knockout ability against bigger fighters.
The Winner – Mayweather (not terribly confident)
I see this fight as not whether Marquez can win, but can Mayweather lose? Mayweather’s style and natural ability are almost impossible to beat. This combined with his selection of opponents in the past have made him a pretty boring fighter to watch in the past. A 100% prepared Mayweather will beat a 100% prepared Marquez any day of the week. However, the X factors of this fight; possible ring rust, Mayweather’s state of mind and preparation distractions may mean that he may not come into the fight 100%. Even with these factors going against Mayweather, I still think his ability will pull him through with a tough but deserved win.
Considering the odds right now, the best bets would be:
1. A Mayweather win on Points (Around 1.90 odds)
2. A small bet on a win for Marquez (Around 4.00 odds) – Do what the Aussies do and back the underdog. You will have a good time rooting for the guy that’s not the dislikeable Mayweather and a small bet will give you a good return on an upset that many can see happening.
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