Errol’s Standing 8 for Mayweather / Marquez + Prediction
By Errol Hyppolite - In this week’s edition of the Standing 8, I am breaking down the Sept 19th h147-Pound Welterweight showdown between Floyd Mayweather and Juan Manuel Marquez.
Article posted on 19.09.2009
Strength / Power
Mayweather should hold a slight edge in punching power. Floyd’s last five fights have been fought at welterweight. When Mayweather sits down on his punches the combination of speed and power stuns his opponents. Marquez is naturally smaller than Mayweather but as he has moved up in weight, he has successfully carried his power with him. That being said, his power is yet to be seen at welterweight.
Advantage: Mayweather (Slightly)
In terms of hand speed, Mayweather should hold a clear advantage. Marquez has very good but not exceptional speed. An interesting intangible is that Mayweather’s hand speed seems to have slowed slightly based on recent videos of him. This works very well in Marquez’s favor. As seen in his two fights with Pacquiao, Marquez’s best chance to negate Mayweather’s speed advantage is to use effective counterpunches.
Stamina / Conditioning
I believe both fighters are evenly matched in terms of stamina. Both Mayweather and Marquez have exceptional training regimens. More importantly, in-between fights they stay active in the gym. In prior fights, Floyd has been very economical in his punch output and as a result he is rarely, if ever fatigued in a fight.
Marquez has gotten off the deck three times in the first round against Pacquiao and somehow made it to the end of the twelfth round. A couple of interesting scenarios could emerge that could tip the stamina equation in either fighters favor. Will Mayweather still have the stamina he had after a 2-year layoff? Will Floyd’s new aggressive style deplete his stamina should he not be able to hurt Marquez in the early rounds? Will Marquez still have excellent stamina at welterweight?
Trainers / Management
Mayweather and Marquez both have exceptional trainers and managers. Roger Mayweather and Ignacio Beristain both possess superb knowledge. Both fighters have worked with their respective trainers for a long time and have great chemistry together.
Defense / Boxing Ability
In the all important defense category, Mayweather holds a clear edge over Marquez. Floyds shoulder roll and ability to slip punches makes him a very elusive target. His counterpunching ability and hand speed discourages opponents from throwing punches. Once Floyd’s opponents become frustrated and throw fewer punches Floyd takes over the fight.
As demonstrated in his fight with Juan Diaz, Marquez is a solid defender but is still quite hittable. Juan Diaz whom I believe lost to Paulie Malinaggi was able to connect at a 32% rate against Marquez. Mayweather is much faster than Diaz but does not have the same output. As of late, Marquez has adapted a much more aggressive style and has been using his offense as his defense. If Marquez gets stunned and begins trying to trade with Floyd to try and fend him out, it could very well be his own undoing.
Environment / Crowd / Referee
With Mexican Independence Day weekend at hand, you can expect a huge crowd for Juan Manuel Marquez. Floyd will also have a large crowd behind him as he makes his return to the ring in two years. You can expect chants of “Mexico” or “USA” depending on who is doing well in the fight.
If terms of getting the nod if this fight goes the distance, it is unlikely that Marquez will get a fair decision. Floyd lives and trains in Vegas, and all the big money is boxing will be pulling for Floyd to win in order to set up the mega showdown with Pacquiao. If Marquez wants to win, he should go for a knockout.
Chin / Durability
In terms of chin and durability, Mayweather holds a slight advantage over Marquez. Mayweather has excellent defense and rarely gets hit clean with a solid punch but the few times I have seen him tagged, he’s handled it quite well.
Marquez has a solid chin, but as demonstrated in his past two fights with Pacquiao, and also in his most recent fight with Diaz, Marquez can be stunned or dropped in the early rounds of a fight. With that said, Marquez has demonstrated tremendous recuperative powers due to his training regimen, which is something Floyd has not had to demonstrate.
Advantage: Mayweather (slightly)
Most Recent Fights Performance / Level of Opposition:
Both Marquez and Mayweather looked great in their last performances. However in terms of level of opposition, Marquez holds a strong advantage over Mayweather. Marquez’s last 5 opponents have been Juan Diaz, Joel Casamayor, Manny Pacquiao, Rocky Juarez, and Marco Antonio Barrera. The Marquez/Diaz fight displayed Marquez’s ability to withstand pressure, and turn the tide through effective counterpunching. In the Casamayor fight, Marquez fought an extremely difficult opponent and knocked him out in the middle rounds. In the fight with Pacquiao, Marquez displayed counterpunching brilliance and effectively blunted many of Manny’s attacks. In the eyes of many, and me Marquez deserved the decision.
Mayweather’s last 5 opponents have been against Ricky Hatton, Oscar De La Hoya, Carlos Baldomir, Zab Judah, and Sharmba Mitchell. Mitchell and Baldomir are C level opponents that Mayweather had no trouble with. In has last performance, Floyd demonstrated excellent defense and a more aggressive style in which he began to put 4-5 punch combinations together. The check left hook that took Hatton out in the tenth round was brilliant, and I expect it to be a big weapon against Marquez. Juan Diaz was able to land repeated left hooks against Marquez, and if Marquez doesn’t improve his defense against this punch it will cost him.
Mayweather by Knockout within six rounds. Marquez is a very game opponent but at this stage in his career, his tendency to get stunned early will likely be his downfall in this fight. In his last fight, Marquez was stunned by feather fisted Juan Diaz. Floyd hits much harder and faster than Juan Diaz. Marquez was also hit very frequently by Diaz’s left hook, which is a punch Mayweather is very adept at landing. Mayweather will be looking to make a statement by ending this fight early. As such we can expect a much more aggressive attack from Mayweather.
Marquez’s best chance to win this fight will be by one of his patented middle round rallies. If Marquez learns Mayweather’s movements and begins to time him and counterpunch effectively he could possibly pull off the upset. It’s well known that Marquez gets stronger later in the fight. Each round that passes in the fight, the greater Marquez’s chances will be. For that very reason, Mayweather will look to win in impressive fashion by being the first to knock Marquez out.
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