Complete Predictions for the Super Six Tournament pt. II: Stage 2 Summary and Adjustments
By Marius Vibe - A while back, I wrote an article called ďComplete Predictions for the Super Six TournamentĒ Ė a piece I was pretty happy about and content to leave alone until the whole competition was completed. But, as many of you may know, there has been a big change in the tournament, in Jermain Taylor leaving, and also a controversial outcome in the Dirrell vs. Abraham fight.
Article posted on 22.06.2010
So itís time for me to modify my predictions and comment a little on the ones Iíve already made:
Summary Ė Group Stage 2:
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
2: Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
3: Allan Green vs. Andre Ward (originally Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward)
Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
[Ö] [Abraham will] perform his trademark peekaboo-style, and Dirrell will try to solve it, with little success. Abraham is just too strong to be bothered by his opponent [Ö]. I canít really see Abraham fast enough to catch Dirrell with something stupid either [Ö].
Prediction: Abraham by decision.
Outcome: Dirrell by disqualification.
* OK, I was wrong about this one. Not that anyone couldíve predicted that DQ punch, but the fight itself turned out differently than Iíd expected. What made the big difference in my opinion, was that Dirrell was gutsier and busier than Iíd thought, and that Abraham seemed uninterested in answering with anything in the earlier rounds. Letting yourself be hit constantly like that WILL hurt you, even though Dirrell can hardly punch himself out of a paper bag.
I feel so sorry for Dirrell that the fight ended the way it did. That punch Abraham threw was inexcusable, and I donít very much care for discussions about whether Andre ďfakedĒ it or not Ė that is absolutely irrelevant. Just throwing that punch is an instant DQ in my book. That said, I still maintain that my prediction that Abraham would win couldíve been right. Knocking out weary opponents in the late rounds is what Arthur does. For a living. And he DID knock Andre down in the tenth, donít ever bother to comment that it was ruled a slipÖ because it wasnít.
Iíd pay a sick amount of money to be able to see this fight to the very finishÖ but sadly, thatís impossible now, and we will never know.
Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
[Ö] I think itíll be exciting and pretty darn hardcore [Ö]. Mikkel will give Froch his first loss, but I donít see Froch going down either. [Ö]
Prediction: Kessler by decision.
Outcome: Kessler by decision.
* This was everything I hoped for it to be, and maybe a little better. I know some people saw it as a close match, but I wouldnít say that it was THAT close. It was always competitive, and you got the sense that almost anything could happen at any time, but Kessler had the ring generalship down in this fight, supported by a way higher work rate, and thatís what landed him a great victory.
Iíve always kinda liked Froch and his wry arrogance (very old-school English fighter), but I must say he fell a bit in my esteem after he started to whine and nag for the next fight to take place at home in his mommaís living room. Worst of all, he may have been right: He couldíve actually been awarded the victory in this fight, if it were fought in his home country. But youíve already got one hometown decision, Carl. Donít tell the fans and the media that you hope to get another one later!
Allan Green vs. Andre Ward [originally Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward]
Outcome: Ward by decision
* So we lost Jermain Taylor, and my further predictions kinda fell apart because of that. My impression of Ward suffered a little as well, because Iíd prefer to watch him against Taylor, a fighter I know more about than his replacement Allan Green. But what the heck Ė I still got to see Ward be dominant and powerful, and my feelings about his chances in the Super Six tournament hasnít changed. He impressively changed his style to match Greenís power and completely smothered him from start to finish. If youíre a die-hard Green fan, you may have been able to give him one sympathy round - if you squinted a little.
Iím not sure if I think Green has any business being in this tournament anyway. If you were surprised that he was chanceless against Ward, you should take a moment and consider that this is the guy who was outboxed (not outpunched) by Edison Miranda! Outboxed! It seems like theyíve replaced a shot Taylor with someone whoís less skilled than Taylor is now, post-prime.
(Now thereís a great idea for you: If Taylor decides to come back from his ďbreakĒ Ė put him up against Allan Green! That would tie up some loose ends.)
And then weíre ready for the next stage. My predictions stand unaltered for the first two fights, the third one is, of course, a new fight altogether.
Predictions - Group Stage 3
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
2: Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
3: Mikkel Kessler vs. Allan Green (originally Mikkel Kessler vs. Jermain Taylor)
Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
These two guys are very similar in style (maybe itís something about the name Andre?) the way I see it, but Ward is just doing everything BETTER than Dirrell. I think this might be a horrible fight to watch for a lot of people: tentative, probing, careful fighting, very technicalÖ until itís all over, and youíve realized that Ward has landed the few punches and combos that were significant. I donít completely rule out a KO victory (because I think that Ward is the only one who could actually hit Dirrell properly while heís off-balance), but I doubt it.
Winner: Andre Ward by decision.
Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
This fight could be a blast. Froch will be aching to make a statement after his first loss against Kessler, so heíll absolutely be looking to knock Abrahamís head clean off. Heís just that kind of fighter. Problem is, thatís the worst thing to try to do against Abraham: heís about as hard and tough as you can get in that weight class Ė just watch his first fight against Edison Miranda, who failed to knock him down, even though Arthur had a broken jaw. Froch is too slow to avoid Abraham properly as well, so this should be an all-out war, to prove whoís the strongest; whoís got the largest stones. Well, itís Abraham, and heíll introduce Froch to something heís never felt before:
Winner: Abraham by KO (probably before round 7)
Mikkel Kessler vs. Allan Green
Iím expecting this to be pretty one-sided, but not necessarily boring. See, Iím not at all sold on Greenís power, because he hasnít really faced any good opposition (except Ward, of course, who beat the snot out of him), so I donít know whether I should give him a puncherís chance or not. Probably not, since weíre talking about Kessler, whoís never been knocked outÖ Iím not sure if heís even been knocked properly down. If Green is stronger than I think, it will be exciting, but Kesslerís vast experience will most likely prevent him from doing anything stupid anyway. He never does.
I believe Kessler will outwork Green and pressure the hell out of him for twelve rounds, landing stiff, mean combos on him. Green seems to have a good chin, though, so thatíll probably keep him up until the bitter end.
And bitter it will be. After losing to Miranda, Green pulled the ďI was sickĒ card and claimed he was up all night with the runs or whatever. After being pummelled by Ward, Green pulled the ďI was weight drainedĒ card, and claimed he was also weakened by too many training camps. I canít wait to hear what he has to say after Mikkel beats him up. Heíll probably claim that he studied Kessler thoroughly in advance, but that a dog ate his homework just before the fight.
Winner: Kessler by (unanimous) decision.
Ö and hereís where I shouldíve put up the final standings after three rounds and predict the last fights up to the finals, but I canít. The reason is that I donít know exactly how the Super Six tie-break mechanism works yet. Iíve heard rumors and gotten bits of info here and there, but the details Iíve gotten at this point seem slightly insane and canít be right.
Once I know 100% for sure, though, look out for part III of my Complete Predictions for the Super Six Tournament, where Iíll map out the NEW route Andre Ward will take to win the whole thing.
(P.S.: I really have no idea why Edison Miranda keeps popping up in this article. I think Iíve just found that heís just a nice point of reference Ė like a Kevin Bacon of the super middleweights).
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