Complete Predictions for the Super Six Tournament pt. II: Stage 2 Summary and Adjustments

By Marius Vibe - A while back, I wrote an article called “Complete Predictions for the Super Six Tournament” – a piece I was pretty happy about and content to leave alone until the whole competition was completed. But, as many of you may know, there has been a big change in the tournament, in Jermain Taylor leaving, and also a controversial outcome in the Dirrell vs. Abraham fight.

So it’s time for me to modify my predictions and comment a little on the ones I’ve already made:

Summary – Group Stage 2:
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
2: Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
3: Allan Green vs. Andre Ward (originally Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward)

Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
[…] [Abraham will] perform his trademark peekaboo-style, and Dirrell will try to solve it, with little success. Abraham is just too strong to be bothered by his opponent […]. I can’t really see Abraham fast enough to catch Dirrell with something stupid either […].
Prediction: Abraham by decision.
Outcome: Dirrell by disqualification.

* OK, I was wrong about this one. Not that anyone could’ve predicted that DQ punch, but the fight itself turned out differently than I’d expected. What made the big difference in my opinion, was that Dirrell was gutsier and busier than I’d thought, and that Abraham seemed uninterested in answering with anything in the earlier rounds. Letting yourself be hit constantly like that WILL hurt you, even though Dirrell can hardly punch himself out of a paper bag.

I feel so sorry for Dirrell that the fight ended the way it did. That punch Abraham threw was inexcusable, and I don’t very much care for discussions about whether Andre “faked” it or not – that is absolutely irrelevant. Just throwing that punch is an instant DQ in my book. That said, I still maintain that my prediction that Abraham would win could’ve been right. Knocking out weary opponents in the late rounds is what Arthur does. For a living. And he DID knock Andre down in the tenth, don’t ever bother to comment that it was ruled a slip… because it wasn’t.

I’d pay a sick amount of money to be able to see this fight to the very finish… but sadly, that’s impossible now, and we will never know.

Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
[…] I think it’ll be exciting and pretty darn hardcore […]. Mikkel will give Froch his first loss, but I don’t see Froch going down either. […]
Prediction: Kessler by decision.
Outcome: Kessler by decision.

* This was everything I hoped for it to be, and maybe a little better. I know some people saw it as a close match, but I wouldn’t say that it was THAT close. It was always competitive, and you got the sense that almost anything could happen at any time, but Kessler had the ring generalship down in this fight, supported by a way higher work rate, and that’s what landed him a great victory.

I’ve always kinda liked Froch and his wry arrogance (very old-school English fighter), but I must say he fell a bit in my esteem after he started to whine and nag for the next fight to take place at home in his momma’s living room. Worst of all, he may have been right: He could’ve actually been awarded the victory in this fight, if it were fought in his home country. But you’ve already got one hometown decision, Carl. Don’t tell the fans and the media that you hope to get another one later!

Allan Green vs. Andre Ward [originally Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward]
Prediction: N/A
Outcome: Ward by decision

* So we lost Jermain Taylor, and my further predictions kinda fell apart because of that. My impression of Ward suffered a little as well, because I’d prefer to watch him against Taylor, a fighter I know more about than his replacement Allan Green. But what the heck – I still got to see Ward be dominant and powerful, and my feelings about his chances in the Super Six tournament hasn’t changed. He impressively changed his style to match Green’s power and completely smothered him from start to finish. If you’re a die-hard Green fan, you may have been able to give him one sympathy round - if you squinted a little.
I’m not sure if I think Green has any business being in this tournament anyway. If you were surprised that he was chanceless against Ward, you should take a moment and consider that this is the guy who was outboxed (not outpunched) by Edison Miranda! Outboxed! It seems like they’ve replaced a shot Taylor with someone who’s less skilled than Taylor is now, post-prime.
(Now there’s a great idea for you: If Taylor decides to come back from his “break” – put him up against Allan Green! That would tie up some loose ends.)

And then we’re ready for the next stage. My predictions stand unaltered for the first two fights, the third one is, of course, a new fight altogether.

Predictions - Group Stage 3
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
2: Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
3: Mikkel Kessler vs. Allan Green (originally Mikkel Kessler vs. Jermain Taylor)

Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
These two guys are very similar in style (maybe it’s something about the name Andre?) the way I see it, but Ward is just doing everything BETTER than Dirrell. I think this might be a horrible fight to watch for a lot of people: tentative, probing, careful fighting, very technical… until it’s all over, and you’ve realized that Ward has landed the few punches and combos that were significant. I don’t completely rule out a KO victory (because I think that Ward is the only one who could actually hit Dirrell properly while he’s off-balance), but I doubt it.
Winner: Andre Ward by decision.

Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
This fight could be a blast. Froch will be aching to make a statement after his first loss against Kessler, so he’ll absolutely be looking to knock Abraham’s head clean off. He’s just that kind of fighter. Problem is, that’s the worst thing to try to do against Abraham: he’s about as hard and tough as you can get in that weight class – just watch his first fight against Edison Miranda, who failed to knock him down, even though Arthur had a broken jaw. Froch is too slow to avoid Abraham properly as well, so this should be an all-out war, to prove who’s the strongest; who’s got the largest stones. Well, it’s Abraham, and he’ll introduce Froch to something he’s never felt before:
Winner: Abraham by KO (probably before round 7)

Mikkel Kessler vs. Allan Green
I’m expecting this to be pretty one-sided, but not necessarily boring. See, I’m not at all sold on Green’s power, because he hasn’t really faced any good opposition (except Ward, of course, who beat the snot out of him), so I don’t know whether I should give him a puncher’s chance or not. Probably not, since we’re talking about Kessler, who’s never been knocked out… I’m not sure if he’s even been knocked properly down. If Green is stronger than I think, it will be exciting, but Kessler’s vast experience will most likely prevent him from doing anything stupid anyway. He never does.
I believe Kessler will outwork Green and pressure the hell out of him for twelve rounds, landing stiff, mean combos on him. Green seems to have a good chin, though, so that’ll probably keep him up until the bitter end.
And bitter it will be. After losing to Miranda, Green pulled the “I was sick” card and claimed he was up all night with the runs or whatever. After being pummelled by Ward, Green pulled the “I was weight drained” card, and claimed he was also weakened by too many training camps. I can’t wait to hear what he has to say after Mikkel beats him up. He’ll probably claim that he studied Kessler thoroughly in advance, but that a dog ate his homework just before the fight.
Winner: Kessler by (unanimous) decision.

… and here’s where I should’ve put up the final standings after three rounds and predict the last fights up to the finals, but I can’t. The reason is that I don’t know exactly how the Super Six tie-break mechanism works yet. I’ve heard rumors and gotten bits of info here and there, but the details I’ve gotten at this point seem slightly insane and can’t be right.
Once I know 100% for sure, though, look out for part III of my Complete Predictions for the Super Six Tournament, where I’ll map out the NEW route Andre Ward will take to win the whole thing.

(P.S.: I really have no idea why Edison Miranda keeps popping up in this article. I think I’ve just found that he’s just a nice point of reference – like a Kevin Bacon of the super middleweights).

Article posted on 22.06.2010

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