Boxing


The B.L. Morgan Boxing Blog: Pacquiao vs. Mosley Cyber Fight

Welcome Ladies and Gentlemen to the world of Cyberspace where everything you can dream is possible. Today we bring you a battle that is not only possible, not only probable, but believe it or not this fight has already been scheduled.

Today’s bout takes place in the near future; May 7th 2011 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Fabulous Las Vegas Nevada.

The combatants are well known to one and all.

Manny Pacquiao frequently called Pac Man because of the way he tears through opponents has been a one man wrecking crew in recent years. He devastated, De La Hoya, flattened Hatton, clobbered Clottey and most recently massacred Margarito. Since his move up to Welterweight his performances have been the type that legends are made of. Will Manny be able to continue this string of seemingly superhuman performances? Only when Sugar is served up will we know for certain.

Sugar Shane Mosley in recent years has been criticized for under performing against Floyd Mayweather when he lost a wide decision and again when he fought Sergio Mora when he only managed a draw. It’s well documented that Shane gets bedeviled and badly frustrated against slick moving defensive style boxers. The Pac Man is anything but defensive. The odds makers have called Sugar a 9 to 1 underdog. Considering he has never been stopped and seldom even seriously hurt in any contest these numbers seem unusually wide against him.

Earlier in his career at Lightweight Sugar Shane Mosley was a fearsome arguably All-Time Great World Champion racking up eight title defenses before moving up two divisions. At Welterweight he beat a prime Oscar De La Hoya and was a dominant force until he met Vernon Forrest and although fighting valiantly was dropped and lost by decision. He also lost a rematch and a pair of fights to Winky Wright while picking up another win over De La Hoya.

Sugar Shane Mosley has been a reliable hard working high quality championship level fighter since beating Philip Holiday for The IBF World Lightweight Championship in 1997.

We’ll see if the odds prove to be true when they climb into the ring and the fists start flying.

*

All right this is it. You don’t want to hear me jaw all night long. Let’s get to it.

The Introductions are done.

The bell rings.

Round 1:

Pac Man comes out fast and lands a multi-punch combo. Shane answers with a jab and straight right. Pac is busier throwing many more punches and gets rocked with a right uppercut. Pac goes more defensive, moving but still throwing tons of punches. Mosley is able to muscle Pacquiao around when inside.

Early pattern; Pac lands more but Sugar’s have more effect.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 2:

Pacquiao comes out moving more. He stays outside throwing from a distance. Pac jumps in with shots then jumps back out and gets on his bicycle. Mosley is having a hard time tracking him down and landing. Mosley catches a big right that snaps his head back but takes it with no problem. Mosley misses with several punches while chasing but Pac has to work harder.

Pacquiao’s Round Close, 10-9

Round 3:

Pac Man lands a multi-punch combo but gets caught at the end and is stunned. He staggers. Pacquiao fights back and is busier but eats jabs. Mosley starting to use jab more to force Pac to move where he wants him to. Mosley seems to be taking control. Sugar found he’s not seriously hurt by Pac’s punches so he walks in throwing quick straight shots.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 4:

Pacquiao is cut bad early in round by a straight right hand. Blood spurts from the wound marking up both men. Mosley marches forward landing repeatedly with the jab. He’s chasing Pacquiao. Manny is hurt with a body punch. Pac comes back with a cluster of shots to fight his way out of trouble. Pac Man lands many more punches to keep Mosley off him.

Pacquiao’s Round 10-9

Round 5:

Pacquiao misses with a big right, gets countered with an uppercut. When they are close and swapping shots Mosley wins the exchanges. His greater physical strength is showing.

Pac Man counters well then gets caught with counter right after missing a counter.

Mosley is marching in throwing big shots.

Mosley is knocked down! It’s sudden and unexpected. Mosley was doing well got caught throwing a big punch with a well timed hook.

He gets up at the count of 6.

Mosley boxes smart and moves until the bell.

Pacquiao’s Round 10-8

Round 6:

The Pac Man comes out to finish the job and they are slugging it out. Both guys have thrown defense out the window. After thirty seconds of furious action both fighters slow down. The round is relatively even with a slight edge to Pacquiao. Mosley survives Manny’s onslaught and lands some big shots back when The Pac Man leaves openings.

Pacquiao’s Round 10-9

Round 7:

Mosley comes out working off the jab and throwing straight rights to the body. He’s effective. Pacquiao is caught with a straight right after a left to the body and stunned. Manny fights his way out of trouble but leaves openings and takes some more big shots just before the bell.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 8:

Pacquiao throwing much more punches. Mosley blocking most but gets the better of exchanges. Cuts on both fighters appear to be closed. Round close but Mosley appears to edge it.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 9:

Pacquiao throwing big shots, most blocked, gets in a big uppercut. Mosley stuns Manny with a short left hook after a blocked right. Both are trading bombs. Pac lets loose with an explosive series of combinations that are mostly blocked. Pacquiao slows. Mosley comes back, traps Manny in the corner. Pacquiao takes big punches to the head and body blocking as many as he can until the end of the round.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 10:

The Pac Man comes out moving more, throwing more to the body, trying to slow Mosley down. Manny throws many fast shots keeping Shane busy until Pac slows down at the two minute mark. Mosley is fresher lands harder shots. The round is close.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

In the corner Freddy Roach tells Manny he’s behind and needs to close the show or the decision is in doubt.

Round 11:

The Pac Man comes out with grim determination etched on his face. He throws a cluster of quick punches mostly blocked. Manny’s gunning to hurt and stop Mosley. The Pac Man fires off an extended combo and gets stunned with a counter straight right. He grabs Shane but is shoved off. Mosley is being selective. He throws jabs and body punches probing for a big opening. Pacquiao is stunned again with a left hook, straight right combo. He grabs again. Mosley pushes him off. Pacquiao throws bunches of punches keeping Mosley busy with blocking until the end of the round.

Mosley’s Round 10-9

Round 12:

Pacquiao looks tired at the beginning of the round. He’s taken a beating and it shows in the lumps and discoloration on his face. Manny throws an extended series of combinations anyway. He’s got to because Shane Mosley is coming for him more aggressively than he has all night. Mosley gets stunned after eating a string of quick accurate punches. Shane grabs. The clinch is broken.

Pacquiao walking in throwing huge wide power punches gets rattled by a straight right that snaps his head back. He grabs immediately. Mosley shoves him off and drops The Pac Man with a big right uppercut, left hook combination.

Manny drags himself up at six. He’s still wobbly. The Pac Man tries to fight back. He’s stunned again with a left hook that twists his face to the side. Pacquiao grabs, is shoved off and dropped with a left hook, right cross combo.

Bleeding badly from his left eye once again Manny Pacquiao barely makes it to his feet at the count of eight. The Pac Man has the look on his face that says, “Come and get me if you can.”

Sugar Shane Mosley answers the call and charges in throwing haymakers. The Pac Man fights back with everything he has but is caught with a teeth rattling right hook. As Manny Pacquiao moves to clinch he is driven down to the canvas a third time with a straight right hand.

As he looks up into the ring lights from flat on his back Manny Pacquiao is counted out!

*

Wow! What a battle that was.

The computer Scores at the time of the KO were:

106 Mosley, 103 Pacquiao

104-104 Draw

107 Mosley, 102 Pacquiao

My score at the time of the KO were 105 Mosley, 103 Pacquiao

Punches landed:

Mosley- 466 of 918 to the head for 50%

196 of 392 to the body for 50%



Pacquiao- 482 of 1071 to the head for 45%

132 of 385 to the body for 34%

If the Manny Pacquiao VS Sugar Shane Mosley fight in the real world is even half as good as what the computer predicted it will be like in the Cyber world then this is going to be one hell of a fight, a Fight of the Year candidate type fight. I can’t wait unit May 7th in the real world but I guess we all will have to.

*

Back ground: If you guessed that this computer fight was done on Play Station 3’s Fight Night Round 4 you would be correct. According to many people including Kato3388 on the Eastside Boxing Forums Fight Night Round 4 is the best Boxing Simulator on the market. I agree. I have used Fight Night games in the past to predict the outcomes of some important matches and found it to be generally accurate.

I ran the Pacquiao/Mosley fight 3 times with the following results.

Using the default settings at the highest level (GOAT) I really expected Pacquiao to destroy Mosley.

In the first match Mosley scored a wide decision over Pacquiao in 12 rounds.

In the second match it got worse. Mosley stopped Pacquiao in 11 rounds.

The third match was the best fight and the one I used for this round by round description since Pac Man scored a knockdown and rattled Mosley several times. But Mosley did stop him in the last round after a titanic struggle.

The patterns that emerged were that Manny threw many more punches but couldn’t take Shane’s punches as well as Shane took his. Also, when Shane went to his jab, doubling and tripling it Manny didn’t really have a good answer. He ended up getting hit with repeated shots from the outside without being in range to counter. When he used his jab Shane’s longer reach was a big advantage.

Sugar Shane Mosley’s main weakness has been every since he moved up to welterweight, long armed boxers who he has to chase. Shane just is not good at chasing down taller opponents. But with Manny Pacquiao he has a shorter opponent, with much shorter arms. He will be able to throw his fast shots and be in range to land them.

If Shane remembers to use his jab the scenario in the Cyber Fight could play out in the real world. He has an excellent jab but most of Shane’s opponents in recent years have been taller so he’s underused that weapon. It’s true for any boxer, the jab sets everything up. At Lightweight Shane Mosley was a dominant champion because he was quick and too physically strong for all his opponents. In Manny Pacquiao he has an opponent with measurements like he hasn’t seen since his lightweight days. This could be like the good old days for Shane. If he fights like he did at lightweight with the power jab as the basis for his attack it will be.

Variables: Age is the number one variable. I kept the settings at the default level which means that the fighters fight their best at that weight. Manny Pacquiao has not shown as much power at welterweight as Shane Mosley has. Age is going to be a factor but who it affects more is hard to say. Shane is chronologically older at 39. But Manny has been having some physically draining, seriously tough fights even though he’s been dominant. Both are past their physical peaks. I have to figure if age effects one more than the other it probably will be Mosley.

Big event nerves: There’s no doubt in my mind that Mosley was affected by the size of the event when he fought Floyd Mayweather. When he hurt Pretty Boy, Sugar Shane had what MMA people have been referring to as an Adrenaline Dump. That’s what happens when a fighter gets too over excited and burns himself out in one big burst.

If this happens against Pacquiao he’ll lose again. This time badly. Pacquiao is the kind of fighter who will destroy an opponent who shows fatigue in front of him. If Shane Mosley is unaffected by the size and importance of the event then almost certainly we are in for a dogfight. Fight Night Round 4 predicts that the bigger dog wins this dogfight.

Finally before I close this out, to prepare for running this simulation I first ran simulations of 10 fights that had happened and in general the results mirrored the real world.

1. Pacquiao VS Hatton: Pac Man by KO in 6

2. Cotto VS Pacquiao: Pac Man by Decision

3. Cotto VS Mosley: Mosley by TKO 12

4. L. Lewis VS T. Morrison: Lewis by KO 12

5. Mosley VS Mora: Mosley by close Decision

6. Hearns VS Leonard: Hearns by Decision

7. Frazier VS Foreman: Foreman by KO 9

8. Ortiz VS Harris: Ortiz by KO 10

9. Tyson VS Lewis: Lewis by TKO 9

10. Ali VS Foreman: Foreman by Decision



A pattern emerged in these fights. If a bout in real life was decided because one fighter changed strategy, in the computer fight that boxer never did change his tactics and lost. That’s why you see on that list Mosley TKOing Cotto. Cotto changed strategy and boxed more when he found out that Shane was too strong for him. The same applies to Ali VS Foreman. In the computer Ali fought hard but caught some big shots every round and was worn down. In the real world Ali realized right off the bat that he couldn’t outfight Foreman and he was getting the ring cut off on him. Ali came up with the extremely risky and creative strategy of lying on the ropes and blocking. Nobody saw that coming. The computer is just not as creative as humans are. Because of this a thinking, adaptable fighter will always perform better in the real world than they would in computer fights.

So, while real boxers have the capacity to change tactics in mid-fight, computer fighters do not. The Cyber Fighters had to stay with the plan they came in with, win or lose.

One fight I ran that hasn’t happened yet was Nonito Donaire VS Fernando Montiel. In the Cyber-fight Donaire scored a wide decision over Montiel. If you want to test the predicting ability of Fight Night Round 4 write this down and check out how the real bout comes off on February 19th. Then compare the results.

So, the odds makers say Pacquiao will destroy Mosley. The Computer says that Mosley will beat down and stop The Pac Man. My prediction is the result is going to be somewhere in between.

I get the feeling that Manny Pacquiao will prove the computer wrong by being able to adapt to the situation. But I don’t think it will be easy.

Mosley will give him hell but the Pac Man will adjust his fight plan and come through and still get the win. Manny has been talking about the possibility of retiring and this fight just may decide it for him. Going in with a bigger, stronger fighter that will have the quickness to be able to put a serious hurt on you just might convince the Pac Man that it’s time to become a full time politician.

Both of the fighters are going to leave this bout covered with glory and quite possibly with each other’s blood. Even though the computer says Mosley wins I believe Pacquiao will pull it off one more time and walk away from it all.

At least I hope he does.

When you have everything in the world to live for why risk it all for one more moment of glory?

*



B.L. Morgan is the author of Blood and Rain, Blood for the Masses, Blood on the Celluloid and Night Knuckles through Speaking Volumes http://speakingvolumes.us/authors_ebooks.asp?pid=79

He is also the author of Blood and Bones and You Play, You Pay through StoneGarden.net Publishing.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!

Article posted on 14.01.2011



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