Boxing


Five Reasons why Ortiz can Beat Mayweather

By B.L. Morgan: After watching Floyd Mayweather Jr. pitch a boring near shutout against Shane Mosley I swore I would never buy another Mayweather pay-per-view. I’m not exactly going back on that because we’re going to see the fight as a Fathom Event at the Century Theater.

We’re not only going because seeing real blood spilled on the big screen is a whole lot of fun. We’re going because of the element of danger that Victor Ortiz brings to this show..

On September 17th a fight that opened with a young, newly crowned champion as a 10 to 1 underdog and is considered by most sports experts as nothing more than a preliminary to the Pac-Man vs. Pretty Boy show will take place. On that day just about everybody expects this bout to be a walk in the park for Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Just about everyone except for Victor Ortiz, his team, and me.

Here are five reasons why this fight could turn into a blood and guts contest of will and determination where Victor Ortiz could end the night with his bloody fist in the air as the winner.



#1: Victor Ortiz is bigger.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. started his career at super featherweight. He stands an inch shorter than Ortiz. Mayweather’s most effective weight was at 135. It was there where he owned a startling blend of speed and precise punching power that he displayed against Diego Corrales.

Victor Ortiz started his career as a Jr. Welterweight and he had to weaken himself to stay in that division. Against Andre Berto, Ortiz showed just what a difference boiling off seven pounds can make in terms of punching power, punch resistance and stamina.

On that night he moved up a weight division and was bigger and stronger than a physically powerful Welterweight Champion. Ortiz weighed 161 pounds the night he fought Andre Berto.

The edge in size and strength clearly goes to Victor Ortiz.



#2: Ortiz is Younger/Fresher.

Boxing is a reflex sport that depends upon fast reaction time and speed much more than MMA where a ground fighter can completely blunt a faster opponent’s attack. That’s why despite the recent history of George Foreman and Bernard Hopkins it’s rare when a Boxer can be competitive past the age of forty.

Floyd Mayweather is only 34 but he is showing the effects of age even now. He is not a George Foreman type who ends contests with one big blast. Mayweather is more of a Bernard Hopkins who pecks away at opponents until they either fall apart or he outscores them.

Whether or not Mayweather can perform like a B-Hop is a huge question mark.

Floyd has been relatively inactive. By the time he steps into the ring again almost 16 months will have passed between his most recent fights. He was rocked badly in the Mosley bout by a fighter who we have since learned has extremely eroded reflexes and seems to have lost all the quickness of his youth.

The moment of truth is going to come when Victor Ortiz lands something big. Then Mayweather will be faced with a young, quick, hungry fighter who is desperate to prove himself to the world trying to take his head off.

After Mosley landed his two bombs he stood off looking like he wasn’t quite sure what to do next. Mosley appeared to be overwhelmed by the moment.

I’m betting Ortiz is primed to seize the moment and attack with all his guns blazing if Floyd wobbles in the least.

This could be the night when Floyd Mayweather Jr. begins to resemble Floyd Mayweather Senior.



#3: Victor Ortiz is a Southpaw.

Floyd Mayweather has faced six left-handed fighters in his professional career.

The first three had a combined record of 21-22-1. They were early in Floyd’s career and weren’t exactly world class opposition.

Of the last three southpaws’ he’s faced two, Chop-Chop Corley and Zab Judah, landed some serious shots on Floyd. Sharmba Mitchell was a badly faded ex-champ by the time he met Mayweather.

What this tells me is that Floyd, like most right-handers, has trouble with southpaws. He gets hit by them and does not dominate them the way he does other fighters.

With Victor Ortiz, Money Mayweather is going in against a power-punching, quick-fisted, left-hander. This is danger incarnate.

Anyone who has ever sparred with a southpaw knows it’s like walking in a minefield. Since the punches are coming at you from reversed angles, every step, every movement has to be calculated and thought out. You cannot just react. When you do that you step and lean into punches you do not see coming.

Maybe being uncomfortable against southpaws is the real reason why Floyd has avoided Pacquiao.

I applaud Floyd Mayweather Jr. for taking such a risky fight especially since he seemed to be ducking danger for quite a few years.

This is one gutsy move that Floyd may come to regret.



#4: Mayweather’s crazy life.

All of Floyd’s recent legal problems have been well documented, the suits, counter-suits, the charges of battery, libel, harassment, the … well the list goes on and on. It’s so ridiculous I’m not going to go over that stuff anymore. You’ve heard enough about it and so have I.

This article is not to judge Mayweather’s personal life. It’s rather to ask the question of whether or not he will be distracted come fight night.

Anyone who has ever gotten divorced, had a serious court date hanging over his head, or even had something like semester finals to think about knows it’s hard to keep your mind in the moment and perform to the top of your athletic ability.

Where most people can get away with being distracted and momentarily letting their attention slip if Floyd Mayweather does that against the deadly puncher that Victor Ortiz is he could wake up staring at the ceiling wondering what happened.

If anybody in the world has reasons to be distracted against an opponent, few gives any chance of winning, it is Money Mayweather. But if he allows that to happen it could spell disaster.



#5: Ortiz is Sharp/Mayweather is Rusty.

This is where Floyd Mayweather Jr. being off over a year, makes Victor Ortiz’ recent regular ring activity that much more impressive.

Ortiz knows from his recent fights how he will react when the going gets tough. He knows what it’s like to get tired, get stunned, get hurt and come back to win.

Ortiz felt the embarrassment he caused himself when he surrendered to Marcos Maidana. That’ll never happen again.

Ortiz knows what he is capable of. For him, there are no questions as to how well he can perform.

With Floyd Mayweather Jr. we do have many questions, questions he has to be asking himself.

In his last fight Pretty-Boy Floyd was badly rocked by a fighter who we have found out has severely eroded reflexes. He’s not going to be faster than he was against Mosley after his lay-off. How is he going to expect to avoid the punches of a fighter much faster than Shane Mosley and much fresher than himself?

In the past the edge in reflexes always went to Floyd Mayweather Jr. This time it could be a vastly different story.

Remember what happened to Ray Leonard when he fought Terry Norris. His reflexes were just not there and he took a serious beating.

Age and inactivity can teach anyone a harsh lesson, even one of the All-Time-Greats.



In Conclusion: Most experts give Victor Ortiz little chance to win against Floyd Mayweather Jr.

They look at Floyd’s record and see the list of champions he’s beaten and figure it would take Superman to defeat him.
They look at Victor Ortiz’ record and see an unproven new champion with far less world class experience than his opponent.

This time records can be deceiving.

It is rather obvious at this point that Floyd Mayweather has been carefully picking his opponents to take the path of least resistance into the Hall of Fame. If this wasn’t true then he would have fought Kostya Tszyu at Jr. Welterweight, as well as Antonio Margarito and Paul Williams at Welterweight.

Mayweather was smart to avoid the best while they were at their peaks. He made millions of dollars and avoided the most dangerous guys out there all the while telling everyone he was the greatest of all time. It was incredibly intelligent career management.

With Victor Ortiz we have a guy who may have been rushed a bit into his fight with Maidana. But he has come back from that loss with some quality wins. Against Berto his performance was startling.

I think the story of the Mayweather vs. Ortiz fight will be a case of one fighter not being as good as most had assumed and the other being better than expected.

I anticipate a tough fight with Ortiz forcing Mayweather into some uncomfortable situations, maybe even knocking him down. In the end though I think Floyd will gut-out a closer than expected decision. He has the skill to put any round in the bank where not a whole lot happens. That ability will be put to good use against Victor Ortiz.

But never forget Victor Ortiz is a young man with everything to win, nothing to lose, and a whole lot to prove. When he gets behind on the scorecards, as I expect him to, he’ll come raging after Floyd gunning for a heroic ending.

Young men with dreams of glory are extremely dangerous.

Just ask Andre Berto.

*

Boxing quote for the day: “People don’t come to a fight to see nice boxing. They come to see someone get knocked out.” --- Saoul Mamby

*****

B.L. Morgan is the author of Blood and Rain, Blood for the Masses, Blood on Celluloid, Blood and Bones, Night Knuckles, The Land of No Return and You Play, You Pay

His books can be found at Barnes & Noble online: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/c/b-l-morgan and all major booksellers.
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!

Article posted on 14.09.2011



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